Will your wallet get a workout this holiday season?

The Mastercard Economics Institute is forecasting a 3.2% percent increase, excluding automotive sales, in total U.S. retail spending from November 1 to December 24 compared to the same time last year. Holiday sales in 2023 rose 3.1%.

The forecast offers a broad picture of the big trends expected to propel spending this season. It’s based on Mastercard’s U.S. SpendingPulse insights that measure in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payments and macroeconomic trends.

Here are four takeaways from the report.

01
Shopping could shift to December

While prep for all holidays seems to start earlier every year — we’re seeing faux gravestones and inflatable ghosts in July — Black Friday is the traditional start of the holiday shopping season. This year, it falls on Nov. 29 — compared with Nov. 24 last year — so we may see more holiday shopping in December, especially online.

02
Electronics sales could surge

With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut this week, lower borrowing costs could lead consumers to splurge on high-tech gadgets. Prices for electronics — as well as other popular holiday item like sporting goods, clothes and personal care products  — haven’t fluctuated much since 2023, which could boost demand. It also may be time to replace the gadgets we invested in during the pandemic, leading to an estimated electronics sales increase of 6.7% year over year. 

03
Clothes shopping continues to move online

The separation between online and in-store shopping has been blurring for years, but consumers are increasingly opting to make their purchases online, often waiting for online promotional periods. For apparel, online retail sales are expected to increase by 4.5% year over year and 2% for in-store.

04
Affordable bling shines on

A deep dive into top jewelry retailers by number of transactions shows that spending on brands favored by millennial and Gen Z shoppers is outpacing traditional brands, which are typically more expensive. The transaction share for these younger-skewing brands is growing, up to 44% from 38% in 2022.