Adobe is forecasting that U.S. online sales will reach a record $240.8 billion this holiday season up 8.4%. Discounting, social media influencers, and upgrading to more expensive goods are expected to drive growth.

Online growth will be up significantly from last year, when sales grew 4.9% in November and December, according to Adobe’s forecast.

Adobe, like other forecasts issued earlier this year, is presenting a positive outlook for the upcoming holiday season. It is projecting that consumers, while still price-conscious, will spend more than they did last year, with e-commerce showing the strongest growth.

“What we’re seeing early in the data is a really pretty strong holiday season,” Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe said in an interview discussing the forecast.

One difference Adobe is seeing this year is that holiday discounts will be more likely to prompt consumers to splurge on bigger ticket items.

“Whereas in previous years people were managing their wallets and waiting for discounts,” Brown said, this year “people are really looking to splurge a little more, and so we’re seeing some interesting responses to deep discounts and much bigger buying happening because of those discounts.”

Adobe’s forecast, released today, is based on Adobe Analytics data drawn from over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites.

That data, along with consumer surveys, resulted in a number of holiday predictions, including:

• More than half of those online holiday purchases will be made on mobile devices.
• Buy-now-pay-later purchases will hit record levels.
• Discounts of up to 30% off will be offered during the holiday period, with the deepest discounts expected between Nov. 22 and Dec. 2.
• Over half of the online spending will be driven by electronics, apparel, and furniture/bedding.
• While paid search has remained the top driver of retail sales this year, sales driven by affiliates and partners, which includes influencers, is expected to have the strongest growth. Adobe found that influencers are converting shoppers 10 times more than social media overall.
• More than one-third of Gen Z shoppers – 37% – say they have purchased something based on an influencer’s recommendation.

The indications that consumers are being motived to spend more due to discounting is prompting retailers “to make sure that they are discounting sufficiently to capture some of the increased volume,” Brown said.

The incremental discounting Adobe is expecting “is going to add about $2 or $3 billion of spend this year,” he said.

Adobe is seeing more of what it identifies as event-based buying, Brown said. Consumers are holding off on major purchases until they see discounts and “then they really lean into them,” he said.

The “trading down” effect Adobe has tracked in previous reports this year, of consumers switching to lower prices goods in product categories, is expected to be reversed during the holidays, with consumers motivated by discounts to splurge on higher-priced goods, according to the forecast.

The Amazon October Prime Day event will kick off the holiday discounting season, with discounting continuing through December and peaking starting the week before Thanksgiving and throughout Cyber Week.

Adobe is expecting to see Thanksgiving and Black Friday register bigger percentage gains in online sales this year than Cyber Monday. Online purchases are expected to be up 9.9% over last year on Black Friday, at $10.8 billion, and up 8.7% year-over-year on Thanksgiving, at $6.1 billion. Cyber Monday will remain the year’s biggest online spending day, at a record $13.2 billion, but sales that day will be up just 6.1% over last year.

Adobe included a list of expected holiday hot sellers in its forecast. In toys, it is expecting high demand for the Bluey Ultimate Lights and Sound Playhouse, slime kits, Fisher-Price Little People, MGA’s Miniverse, Lego sets, and toys related to the Descendants: The Rise of the Red movie.

Electronic top sellers are expected to include the iPhone 16, Google Pixel 9, Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra, and the Oura Ring. The Ninja Creami ice cream maker also is expected to be a holiday hit.