Admin December 25, 2024
NFL Week 17 picks: Why you should consider Lions, Panthers and Colts
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets ahead of Week 17 games. Find out why he likes the Lions, Panthers and Colts to cover the spread.
The lists have been made and checked twice. The USA TODAY Sports staff is coming to town.
The team has gathered at the table to deliver the best NFL bets for the Christmas games in one place.
The NFL has elbowed its way under the tree and into Christmas tradition. On Christmas Day, unwrap a doubleheader of NFL action to help get you into the holiday spirit.
Our experts have provided the five best predictions for the NFL Christmas games, selecting from all the available betting markets and supplying an in-depth analysis of spreads, player props and anytime touchdowns.
Here are the best NFL bets for Christmas with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Best bets NFL Christmas
Odds as of Tuesday.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers TE OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-120)
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: George Pickens is poised to return to the Steelers’ lineup for their game against the Chiefs, but Russell Wilson might spend the holiday singing “All I Want For Christmas Is ‘Muth.”
Why? While the Chiefs have one of the NFL’s best defenses, they have one key weakness. They haven’t been good against tight ends this year, as they have allowed the most receiving yards (1,090) and third-most receptions (94) to the position this season.
Freiermuth should have plenty of space to operate with Pickens back in action. The veteran tight end has also developed solid chemistry with Wilson as the season has progressed, seeing 4.75 targets per game over his last few outings.
Add in that the Chiefs have allowed at least one tight end to have 30-plus receiving yards in 11 straight contests and ‘Muth should eclipse this number with relative ease.
Derrick Henry, Ravens RB OVER 91.5 rushing yards (-115)
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: This game is a battle between two top run defenses in the NFL by both standard and advanced statistics.
Baltimore is the No. 1 run defense by yards allowed per game with 83.1; Houston is No. 11 at 106.8 yards per game. By advanced metrics, Houston is third in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per rush on defense at -0.18. Baltimore is sixth at -0.14.
However, the Texans are still without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair due to suspension. The Ravens are the best rushing offense they’ve faced since the Lions in Week 10. Detroit churned out 103 yards on the ground that night in a wild game that included five turnovers by the Lions’ offense.
Henry’s cleared 92 yards twice in the last four games for the Ravens. In a game they need to win to secure a potential AFC North title, they’ll lean on their battering ram of a back built for December and January. Houston is also noticeably better against the run on the road than at home. The Texans are allowing 116.9 rushing yards per game at home but 96.4 on the road.
Kareem Hunt, Chiefs RB vs. Steelers anytime TD (+225)
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: Isiah Pacheco may be back in action for Kansas City, but he’s been riding the struggle bus ever since returning from his broken leg.
In Saturday’s game against the Texans, Hunt proved how capable he still is at handling the heavier workload he had taken on in Pacheco’s absence. He out-touched the younger back – with 13 to Pacheco’s 10 – and picked up 55 yards on 11 carries and 24 receiving yards on two catches. Hunt also added a rushing touchdown and could have had one more if he hadn’t slid down near the end of the fourth quarter.
Given that Pittsburgh gave up a monster day to Derrick Henry, Hunt could be in for a big outing of his own. Provided he continues to out-play Pachecho, I like his chances of recording a touchdown for a second straight game.
Noah Gray, Chiefs TE OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-110)
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Christmas is not just a holiday about gifts but it’s also fairly biblical. Fittingly enough, Noah Gray is here to satisfy both of those things. The Chiefs’ tight end may not be building an ark anytime soon, but when he notches at least 15 receiving yards on Christmas day, we might be able to buy one. More importantly, the only flood on this day will be the cash rolling in.
The Steelers have been in the giving mood recently, especially to opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed at least 50 yards to the position in 5-of-6, something they did just twice in the first nine games. Gray is the backup in this case, but his production hasn’t seen a hit despite playing 60% of snaps. With the Steelers ready to bring pressure all afternoon and most of their attention going to Travis Kelce, we can expect Gray to provide some security for Patrick Mahomes in the passing game.
He finished with just 10 yards in Week 16, but he was otherwise over this line in six straight and 8-of-10 since Kansas City’s Week 6 bye and 11-of-15 this season. Gray is checking in at 3.6 targets and 31.1 yards per game since the bye. One catch or two should do the trick.
Add that he’s scored five touchdowns in his last six games and we have a recipe for another wager. A two-for-one special, if you will. We’ll also take him to score a touchdown at +525 on BetMGM, which would be a nice present under the tree.
We’ll be dreaming of a gray Christmas, even if that does sound a bit sad.
Joe Mixon, Texans RB vs Ravens OVER 2.5 receptions (-110)
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: Have you ever tried sledding in about an inch of snow? That’s what Mixon has been doing. He’s been trudging through the mud and the tough sledding on the ground continues against the Ravens defense. Baltimore has allowed the fewest yards per carry and the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs.
Mixon faced the Chiefs last week, and they have given up the fewest rushing yards this season and have seen the fifth-fewest running back targets. With Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out for the season, Bobby Slowik will include Mixon in the passing game. Houston is a 5.5-point underdog at home, so the game plan will likely require a pass-heavy approach.
Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr altered the defensive game plan following the shootout with the Bengals in Week 10, changing how teams attack them. Offenses have to work the short middle areas of the field and running backs in the passing game have been the main beneficiaries. Baltimore has seen the fourth-most running back targets and has allowed a running back to finish with at least three catches in five of the last six games (W16 Jaylen Warren 5), (W15 Devin Singletary 3), (W12 J.K. Dobbins 3), (W11 Najee Harris 4, Jaylen Warren 4), (W10 Chase Brown 9). Mixon has at least four targets in five of the last six games. Mixon will deliver on Christmas.