Admin December 21, 2024
NFL Week 16 picks: Consider Chiefs, Lions and Eagles this weekend
Lorenzo Reyes shares his best bets ahead of a long weekend of football games.
It’s the busiest time of the year for some people, so the USA TODAY Sports staff has assembled again to deliver the best NFL bets of Week 16 in one place. The guys have embraced the spirit of giving during the holiday season and hope to make searching for the best NFL bets this weekend simple for you. Last week, the team went 1-4 and moved to 3-7 overall over the last two weeks but the crew is eying a redemption tour this weekend.
Our experts have provided the five best predictions for this weekend’s slate of games, selecting from all the available betting markets and supplying an in-depth analysis of spreads, player props and anytime touchdowns. Here are our best NFL bets for this week’s games with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Best bets NFL Week 16
Odds as of Thursday.
Trey McBride, Cardinals TE, anytime TD at Panthers (+140)
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: To play in the big leagues, you have to be able to hit a curveball. An MLB Hall of Famer will fail at his job seven out of ten times, but a sports bettor is trying to be successful above 52.4% of the time. In other words, we’re striving to be better than the guys in Cooperstown. Last week, Brian Robinson Jr. failed to punch one into the end zone despite multiple opportunities at the goal line. Instead of being discouraged, we’re stepping back into the batter’s box and firing up another anytime touchdown.
If you believe in due, there’s no player in the NFL more due to score than Cardinals tight end Trey McBride. He ranks sixth in the league in receptions (89), 11th in receiving yards (938) but dead last in receiving touchdowns (0). The 89 catches are the most by a player without scoring a touchdown in NFL history. Last year, Diontae Johnson‘s notorious scoreless streak ended at 119 receptions without a touchdown; however, that spanned two seasons. McBride’s scoring drought is the most in a single season. Johnson’s ended at 86 receptions.
Arizona will play the Panthers on the road in Week 16. Carolina is tied with the most passing touchdowns allowed in the NFL (27). He has double-digit targets in four straight and will get peppered again this Sunday. The Panthers have allowed the most receiving scores to opposing tight ends this season (10). All signs point to a massive McBride game. Celebrate the end of this drought and make it rain.
Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) at New York Giants (-110)
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: I like that play, Tom. I suppose you can say that of any play against the Panthers, but I think you’re dead right that Arizona will sniff out this matchup as an opportunity to help McBride break that ignominious streak.
Speaking of teams playing against bad opponents, that’s exactly what we have in the Falcons-Giants matchup. The Giants are one of the worst teams in the NFL and may have a lame duck coaching staff, so Atlanta should be able to beat them handily.
Yes, the Falcons are fresh off a game during which they nearly lost to the Las Vegas Raiders on a last-second Hail Mary, but the issue wasn’t their defense, which held the Raiders to three points in the first 57 minutes of that game. It was their offense. Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson clearly didn’t trust Kirk Cousins enough to put the ball in his hands against the Raiders. That’s why they are changing things up at quarterback and rolling with Michael Penix Jr. this week.
Backing a rookie as more than a touchdown favorite might seem scary, but it’s important to remember just how bad Cousins has been during the Falcons’ last five games. He completed 62.7% of his passes for an average of 236 yards per game, just one touchdown and a whopping nine interceptions. Yuck.
If Penix can clear that low bar, Atlanta should be able to cover this spread. His cause will be helped by the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson-led running game, which has a good matchup against a Giants defense that is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game this season (143.7).
Penix showcased plenty of arm talent and high-level accuracy when things were going well for him at Washington. That should allow him to lead the Falcons to a much higher ceiling than their recent five-game average of 14.4 points per game, especially against a Giants team with little for which to play. Thus, I’m bullish on Penix’s chances of taking command of the Falcons’ starting job and plugging some holes in their previously sinking ship.
Zay Flowers, Ravens WR, anytime TD vs. Steelers (+165)
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: Like many Zay Flowers fantasy football managers, I’ve been frustrated by the Ravens’ second-year wideout this season. He’s been inconsistent at best and underwhelming since his 127-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 9 against the Broncos.
It’s too late for him to salvage my fantasy football season but he can still find the end zone this weekend. The Steelers’ pass defense has struggled in recent weeks. They’ve allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers in their last three games compared to five in the prior 11. Joey Porter Jr. seems to be the only cornerback who can hold up in coverage and he can’t be everywhere at once.
Flowers got free for a touchdown against Pittsburgh in Week 11, his most recent trip to the end zone. Last week, he had a solid but unspectacular six catches for 53 yards against the Giants in a blowout, while fellow wideout Rashod Bateman had three catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns.
Bateman’s scored seven touchdowns this season but never in back-to-back games. This week could be Flowers’ turn to score.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers WR, alternate receiving yards OVER 100+ (+165) at Cowboys
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: I apologize to Tom, Jacob and Ayrton. I must say I’m not a huge fan of their picks but what do I know? I’m just the only one here with a perfect 2-0 record over the last two weeks.
With that being said…
Buccaneers veteran wideout Mike Evans needs about 84 yards per game in his final three games to reach an 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season. If he gets there, he will tie Jerry Rice’s NFL record for most consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns.
Evans is coming off a 159-yard outing against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Cowboys – Evans and the Bucs’ Week 16 opponent – are coming off two straight games in which they allowed over 100 receiving yards to their opponents’ top receivers. Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase had 177 yards in Week 14, and Panthers rookie Jalen Coker had 110 yards last week.
If that’s not convincing enough, quarterback Baker Mayfield said in a Wednesday press conference that he’s thinking about Evans’ potential to reach 1,000 yards again “more than Mike is.” The gunslinger swears he’s “not going to force” extra targets to his leading wideout, but Evans has 28 targets over the last three weeks, far more than any other Tampa Bay receiver.
On top of that, Dallas announced earlier this week that cornerback Trevon Diggs is out for the season after undergoing knee surgery. Mayfield and Evans will almost certainly try to go after Diggs’ replacement all night in the prime-time matchup. The stars seem aligned for a massive day from Evans, and he could hit 100+ yards with a couple of big catches just as easily as he could with many shorter ones on a plethora of targets.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Browns QB, OVER 25.5 rushing yards (-115) at Bengals
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: After adding Bijan Robinson and Bryce Young to the naughty list recently, we’re still on the hunt for win No. 1 in this staff pick journey. That’s fine though, let these fine folks think they have an edge.
For this week’s installment of best bets, we will trust the Cleveland Browns’ QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, or DTR, as the cool kids say. This time of year is all about believing, whether it makes sense or not. Luckily, the over on this rushing yards line makes sense and is worthy of our belief. The Bengals allow the most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, checking in at 30.7 per game on average. That already makes us feel good about getting at least 26. Like any great infomercial, wait, there’s more.
In his limited relief effort against the Bengals earlier this season in Week 7, DTR checked in with 44 yards on just three carries. What’s not to like about that? Figure in that Cleveland faces a negative game script and now we’re really cooking. Now, all that’s left is for this Brown to turn our wager into green. After all, how can we not trust a team with an elf logo before Christmas?