Admin December 14, 2024
NFL Week 15 picks: Consider Lions, Chiefs and Bengals on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes explains why he likes the Lions, Chiefs and Bengals in Week 15.
For many fantasy football league managers, the postseason is here. Week 15 marks the start of the run to fantasy glory and, for some, the last chance to avoid a punishment for finishing last in their league.
The pressure is on and lineup decisions are important. If you’re looking for some last-minute advice heading into this crucial week, we’ve got you covered. Here are the players to start or sit this week across your lineup.
Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em Week 15: QBs
START: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks during the 2024 NFL season. They are one of just two teams league-wide to allow at least 20 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns to the position this season, along with the Dallas Cowboys.
Herbert has just one touchdown pass in his last three games, but this favorable matchup should allow him more scoring opportunities. The Chargers running game has struggled the last few weeks without J.K. Dobbins anyway, so expect Herbert to be the team’s top fantasy producer in Week 15.
START: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago Bears)
Darnold extended his streak of multi-touchdown games to four with his five-touchdown outburst against the Atlanta Falcons. The Bears may offer slightly more resistance than the Falcons, but Chicago has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games and an average of 286.7 passing yards per game over that span. Feel free to fire up Darnold as long as the Vikings continue to struggle to run the ball in the red zone.
START: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (at Houston Texans)
The Texans defense can generate plenty of pressure when things go right. However, they also give up plenty of big passing plays, which is why they are tied with the Falcons for the most passing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks during the 2024 NFL season (26).
Tagovailoa is averaging 325.3 passing yards over his last four games and has 11 touchdowns with no interceptions in that span. Fire him up as a QB1 in a favorable matchup.
SIT: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Los Angeles Chargers)
Mayfield is coming off a strong three-touchdown showing against the Las Vegas Raiders, but he had just one total touchdown in each of his previous three games. The Chargers allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and are easier to run on than pass. That may make it hard for Mayfield to replicate his success and claw his way into the QB1 range this week.
SIT: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Fading Goff may seem risky after Matthew Stafford‘s three-touchdown game against the Bills last week, but Buffalo’s defense tends to have more trouble stopping the run than the pass. The Bills have allowed a whopping 11 rushing touchdowns over the last four games compared to just six passing touchdowns in that same span.
Goff may still be able to post some solid passing numbers, but this seems like a game during which David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will be asked to do more of the scoring. Goff still has a decent ceiling given the explosive playmaking ability of guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, but his floor this week is much lower than usual.
SIT: Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Rodgers is coming off his first 300-yard passing game since Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season, but it’s hard to recommend starting him. The Jaguars are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but they have been better of late, allowing one or fewer passing touchdowns in three of their last four games.
Rodgers has just five touchdowns over his last four games and is averaging 214.8 passing yards during that span despite his 339-yard performance in Week 14. Like Goff, Rodgers is a boom-or-bust option this week that could significantly backfire, so save him for DFS contests as a lower-budget sleeper.
Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em Week 15: RBs
START: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (at New Orleans Saints)
Robinson Jr. and the Commanders are back in action in Week 15 after their bye. Last time out against the Titans, Robinson Jr. had 109 total yards and a touchdown in a top-12 performance in all formats.
This week, he faces a Saints defense that’s allowed 135 total yards per game and four touchdowns in their last four games. Austin Ekeler is still recovering from a Week 12 concussion and could miss this game, leaving more opportunity for Robinson Jr. to excel.
START: Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago Bears)
Jones had a surprisingly good performance last week against Atlanta. He was a sit candidate but had 84 total yards and a touchdown against the Falcons.
He has a better matchup this week. Defensive coordinator Eric Washington just got shredded by the 49ers for 319 yards in the first half last week and three rushing touchdowns. Kevin O’Connell and this Vikings offense should push the Bears’ defense as well and Jones should benefit against a team allowing 176 total yards per game and five touchdowns to the position over the last four weeks.
START: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
Hubbard is back in our start section thanks to two factors: playing the Cowboys’ 30th-ranked run defense and Jonathon Brooks needing season-ending knee surgery.
The path is clear for Hubbard to continue as one of the best running backs in fantasy football. He managed 107 total yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia last week, a much tougher defense than what he’ll face this week.
START: David Montgomery, Detroit Lions (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Montgomery’s consistency is impressive over the last five games. He’s scored five touchdowns and averaged 108 total yards in that span.
Buffalo’s defense has struggled against running backs recently, including last week against the Rams. Los Angeles’ backs had 131 total yards and two touchdowns a week after the 49ers’ backs averaged nearly six yards per carry. Shootout loss or blowout win, Buffalo’s letting opposing running games go off.
There may not be a better designed rush offense in the league than what Detroit is doing on a weekly basis. Look for Montgomery to have another good week.
START: Braelon Allen, New York Jets (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
This is contingent on starter Breece Hall missing this game with injury. Hall did not play last week against Miami and Allen had 81 total yards on 15 touches in the overtime loss to the Dolphins.
The Jets stay on the road this week and face one of the worst run defenses in the league. Jacksonville has allowed opposing running back groups to average 170 total yards and score four touchdowns in the last four games. If Hall’s not good to go, Allen could be a good FLEX option to help your playoff push.
SIT: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Philadelphia Eagles)
Harris couldn’t follow up his RB3 performance in Week 13 to the same standard in Week 14. The Steelers running back had 53 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in a good-but-not-great performance at home.
This week, Pittsburgh heads on the road to face one of the toughest defenses in the league. Philadelphia has allowed 103 total yards per game and two touchdowns to opposing running back groups over the last three games. Harris may be a must-start but don’t expect a great game from him against the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL.
SIT: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Los Angeles Chargers)
Irving’s run as a top-10 fantasy running back came to a unfortunate end in Week 14 against the Raiders. Irving had just 18 yards on five touches before leaving the game with a back injury. If he’s able to go in Week 15, he may struggle against one of the better run defenses in the league.
Aside from the Ravens in Week 12 and the Falcons in Week 13, teams have struggled to run on the Chargers. A banged-up Irving isn’t on the level of Derrick Henry or Bijan Robinson and likely won’t put up a top performance.
SIT: De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (at Houston Texans)
The Dolphins’ running game is the second-worst in the NFL on a per play basis, according to Sumer Sports’ expected points added (EPA)/rush metrics. Achane’s continued to be a viable starter thanks to his work in the passing game, which has helped the Dolphins’ offense remain an efficient machine.
Unfortunately, they’re facing a Texans team fresh off a bye in Week 15. Houston has the No. 7-ranked pass defense and hasn’t allowed more than 26 receiving yards to running backs in their last three contests. In that span, opposing running back groups are averaging 100 total yards per game and have scored just one touchdown. Achane may be a must-start at this point but, like Harris, may struggle on the road.
SIT: Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
Tracy Jr. scored a touchdown for the third time in his last four games against New Orleans last week. Those touchdowns have upped his value; he’s averaging just 80.5 total yards in that span.
This week, he’s facing one of the best run defenses in the league that had a bye last week. Baltimore has allowed one 100-yard rusher all season: Saquon Barkley. The Giants’ run game is not at the level of Philadelphia’s and will likely have trouble against the Ravens. Baltimore is allowing just 3.5 yards per carry this season. If Tracy Jr. can’t find the end zone, he’ll be in for a tough week.
SIT: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (at Cleveland Browns)
Pacheco’s return to the field has been solid but unspectacular. He got up to 16 touches last week against the Chargers and finished the night with 61 yards. That was a slight improvement on his 49-yard performance against the Raiders in Week 13.
He faces a Browns defense that’s distinctly better at home than on the road against the run. Cleveland’s allowing 150 rushing yards per game on the road; only the Panthers are allowing more (170.1) than that. But at home, Cleveland’s allowing 102.2 rushing yards per game, a mark that would put the Browns seventh in the NFL.
It’s tempting to put Pacheco in after likely stashing him on IR for most of the season but Cleveland on the road is not a good matchup to rely on him.
Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em Week 15: WRs
START: Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (at Houston Texans)
After a 10-week stretch of poor production between Weeks 2 and 11, Waddle’s arrow is trending back up. He’s surpassed 50 receiving yards in three straight games now – even on a freezing cold night in Green Bay – and recorded more than seven receptions in two of the last three weeks.
In Week 15, he’ll face a Texans defense that is among teams giving up the most fantasy points to wideouts on a week-to-week basis. Houston has allowed the sixth-most points to receivers all season, fourth-most over the last four weeks and third-most over the last two.
START: Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears (at Minnesota Vikings)
Much like Waddle, Allen struggled in the earlier parts of this season only to see his production start to increase in recent weeks. Prior to a tough matchup with the stingy 49ers’ defense, Allen had two straight games with more than 70 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The good times for the veteran receiver should resume in a divisional game against the Vikings. Despite the great work defensive coordinator Brian Flores has done with Minnesota’s defense this year, the Vikings have been a good fantasy matchup for wide receivers all season.
SIT: Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (at Seattle Seahawks)
Reed’s season as been full of ups and downs, which is a characteristic already doesn’t lend itself well to the most important games of the fantasy football season. To that end, he’s coming off of a one-target, zero-catch performance against the Lions, and he hasn’t recorded more than three catches in any of the Packers’ four games since their Week 10 bye.
This week, he and Green Bay come up against a Seahawks passing defense that has been one of the stingiest over the last month. It’s not a recipe success for Reed, who’s already a volatile option, to say the least.
SIT: Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills (at Detroit Lions)
Coleman is likely gearing up to make his return from a nagging wrist injury in Week 15 after he was a game-time decision last week. Even though quarterback Josh Allen is coming off of a historic performance under center, the rookie wide receiver is a better player to stash for now as he works his way back. Allen’s trust in top options Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir is growing every week, and Coleman could be the odd man out.
On top of that, he and the Bills are coming up against a Lions defensive unit that has been among the strongest against the pass over the last four weeks. Detroit’s defense has allowed the third-fewest EPA/play and second-lowest success rate on dropbacks in that span.
SIT: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (at Denver Broncos)
Pittman is another too-volatile option to start in a time of year that demands consistency from fantasy football wide receivers. He’s found the end zone just twice all season and zero times in his last six games. He had at least five catches in three games leading into the bye, but he only eclipsed 50 yards once in those three games.
Ultimately, Pittman’s volatile production comes down to the whims of his equally volatile quarterback, Anthony Richardson. It’s hard to depend too much on either against a Denver defense that’s been strong against the pass all season – Jerry Jeudy revenge game aside – and could really use this win to boost its playoff chances.
Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em Week 15: TEs
START: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (at Las Vegas Raiders)
If you roster Kyle Pitts, you may not have reached the playoffs, but if you have him, you can start him this week. Since “National Tight End Day” in Week 8, Pitts has been an afterthought. He has just seven receptions, 89 yards, and no TDs in his last five games, but he’s coming off a game where he finished with six targets, including two end zone targets. Yes, he is surprisingly fourth in targets on his team, but Pitts will likely garner the highly valuable end zone targets like those broken up against the Vikings.
Pitts had a nice bounce back in snaps, playing 62 of 70 plays in Week 14. He did a ton of the dirty work blocking, and he will get rewarded for his efforts on Monday night against the struggling Raiders. The Falcons play Las Vegas on Sunday, and they are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Pitts has been extremely difficult to trust, but this is a week he will reward you.
START: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (at Carolina Panthers)
Jake Ferguson returned in Week 14 following two straight absences after suffering a concussion. He finished with a decent line of three receptions for 32 yards on six targets, and it could have been even better if Cooper Rush hadn’t missed him wide open in the back of the end zone instead of forcing a throw to CeeDee Lamb, which resulted in an interception. You can set it and forget it this week with “Big Ferg” as Dallas is set to meet the Panthers.
The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and a league-high 10 touchdowns to the position, making this a great opportunity for Ferguson to find the end zone for the first time in 2024. He ran 28 routes compared to backup Luke Schoonmaker’s nine, so he is the primary receiving tight end for Dallas. Fire up Ferguson in his second game back.
START: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
The Browns offense has been explosive with Jameis Winston under center. You likely drafted Njoku to be your weekly starter after his tremendous 2023 season, and it’s been an up-and-down season, but confidently insert him into your lineups again this week. As long as Winston is under center, you can fire up Njoku. He is averaging 1.1 end zone targets per game since Jameis took over as the starter.
The uber-athletic tight end has been lighting it up the last two weeks and is in a great spot to finish as the TE1 overall in Week 15. Njoku gets a glorious matchup this week against a struggling Chiefs secondary. Njoku has received a whopping 30 targets over the last two games alone, and he shouldn’t slow down on Sunday. Kansas City has allowed the most receptions and yards to tight ends, and the Browns offense will likely throw the ball to keep pace with Mahomes and Kansas City.
SIT: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Philadelphia Eagles)
The Steelers travel to Philadelphia to play the Eagles in Week 15 on Sunday. Pittsburgh’s offense has impressed the last two weeks, and since Russell Wilson took over under center, Freiermuth has posted three top-10 finishes and three outside the top 20. Wilson has averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game over the last five games, but the Steelers will want to lean on the ground game against the Philadelphia secondary. The Eagles’ offense will keep the Steelers on the sideline for longer stretches than their last two opponents (Browns and Bengals).
This week, “Muth” is in a bad spot against the Eagles, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. The Eagles have allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game overall. Leave Freiermuth on your bench in Week 15.
Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em Week 15: Ks
START: Cameron Dicker, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Buccaneers are allowing 2.6 field goals per game this season. Only the Miami Dolphins (2.8) have allowed more thus far. Dicker saw a streak of four straight games with multiple field goals end against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14, but the accurate kicker (28-of-30 in 2024) should have more kicking opportunities in a matchup against a leakier pass defense.
START: Matthew Wright, Kansas City Chiefs (at Cleveland Browns)
Wright doesn’t have the biggest leg, but he has attempted a whopping nine field goals in his two games with the Chiefs. As long as he keeps getting that volume – and he should, given the Chiefs’ 25th-ranked red-zone touchdown percentage (50.98%) – he can be trusted in any matchup.
The only thing to watch this week is whether Harrison Butker will return from injury and displace Wright. If Butker is playing, he becomes an obvious start while Wright will likely be relegated to practice squad detail as a backup.
START: Jason Sanders, Miami Dolphins (at Houston Texans)
Sanders has multiple field goal attempts in all but two games this season. He has also made 9-of-11 kicks from 50-plus yards, including two in the Dolphins’ Week 14 win over the New York Jets. The Texans are allowing just 1.6 field goal attempts per game, but few teams have been able to hold Sanders to just one attempt this season. The odds are that he will get multiple cracks at field goals in what could be a high-scoring contest, so don’t be afraid to back him in this spot.
START: Zane Gonzalez, Washington Commanders (at New Orleans Saints)
The Commanders are averaging 2.8 field goal attempts per game this season. That’s tied for the second-most in the NFL behind only the San Francisco 49ers. Some may be reluctant to trust Gonzalez given that he is just 3-of-5 on field goal attempts during his brief stint in Washington, but the Saints allow 2.4 field goal attempts per game. That should allow Gonzalez to establish himself as a top-10 fantasy kicker, especially with Washington’s high-powered offense set to be well-rested coming off a bye.
SIT: Jake Elliott, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Elliott has shockingly gone 0-for-5 on field goals of 50-plus yards this season after making 7-of-8 from that distance last year. Now, he gets a tough matchup against a good Steelers defense that has allowed just 1.8 field goals per game this season, tied for the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Between his struggles from distance and potential lack of opportunities in this matchup, sitting Elliott seems like the right choice.
SIT: Cade York, Cincinnati Bengals (at Tennessee Titans)
York had a strong game against the Dallas Cowboys, making two field goals and three extra points in Cincinnati’s win. He may still get a solid amount of opportunities in Cincinnati’s high-scoring offense, but the Titans are allowing just 1.9 field goal attempts per game, while York is just 10-of-17 in his career on kicks from 40-plus yards. It’s probably best to go with a more proven, consistent kicker with the NFL’s bye weeks now over.
Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em Week 15: D/STs
START: Washington Commanders (at New Orleans Saints)
The Commanders come into Week 15 fresh off a bye, ready for the stretch run. They find themselves with a soft landing, traveling to the bayou for a matchup with the potentially Derek Carr-less Saints. Whether he plays or not doesn’t seem to matter, especially thanks to all the injuries in New Orleans. Outside of Alvin Kamara, the Saints are unrecognizable from where they were earlier in the year. Without Taysom Hill, New Orleans is missing their Swiss Army knife, making matters even more difficult.
Meanwhile, there’s a good chance that Marshon Lattimore will finally make his debut for Washington. The cornerback should provide a nice boost to the Commanders defense and it certainly doesn’t hurt that he could debut against the team that traded him. As Washington marches towards a potential playoff spot, they’re a worthy streaming option to kick off the fantasy playoffs.
START: Arizona Cardinals (vs. New England Patriots)
Speaking of bye weeks, the Patriots are also coming off a late-season vacation. However, they’re traveling across the country to the desert, facing a Cardinals team desperate for a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Like Washington, New England is starting a rookie quarterback, but Drake Maye doesn’t have the advantage of playing for the better team. A rookie quarterback on a bad team going across the country after coming off a bye feels like a recipe for disaster. The Cardinals are looking to rebound off a brutal home loss to Seattle and New England provides a solid spot to bounce back.
START: Baltimore Ravens (at New York Giants)
Baltimore hasn’t been a fantasy defense to trust in 2024, but a visit to the Meadowlands is enough to earn them a start in Week 15. The Giants have aggressively tanked their way to a projected top-two pick in the draft through 15 weeks and are just a few games from making that dream a reality. New York added a blocked field goal to their growing list of embarrassing moments, losing to the Saints in Week 14. They own the league’s lowest-scoring offense, and barring a miracle, it won’t get better this season. If Baltimore can force a turnover or two, they can improve on an already high floor as one of the best fantasy options for Week 15.
START: New York Jets (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
From fading one New York team to starting another, the Jets find themselves on the start side of the spectrum with a second consecutive trip to Florida. However, consider this more of a desire to fade the Jaguars than an endorsement of the Jets. New York has been a disaster all season, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory at every turn. They have just one win in the last ten tries and are likely heading for another complete reset.
Despite their sad reality, New York will likely collect some wins along the way and Jacksonville seems like the perfect place for that. The Jags are 1-2 in Mac Jones’ starts and have yet to score more than 10 points in any of those games. The Jets should have no problem keeping up with Jones and posting one of their better scoring totals of the year.
SIT: Seattle Seahawks (vs. Green Bay Packers)
While Seattle has been kind to fantasy managers this season, it’s a unit to fade in Week 15. The Seahawks have gotten by with some big point totals thanks to five touchdowns from their defense and special teams, but that isn’t a given every week. Even though they’ve forced at least one turnover in seven straight, the matchup with the Packers is enough reason to look elsewhere. Green Bay owns a top-10 scoring offense but is in the middle of the pack in turnovers. In what should be a fun Sunday night game, there is too much scoring potential to trust the Seahawks against a step up in competition.
SIT: Atlanta Falcons (at Las Vegas Raiders)
The Falcons are set to travel to Sin City for a matchup with the Raiders in the second half of the Monday night doubleheader. Starting Atlanta’s defense against the team with the worst record in the league is tempting, especially given the quarterback uncertainty in Vegas. However, like buying a car, you must look under the hood. Underneath, you’ll find a mess that no mechanic or fantasy manager wants a piece of.
The Falcons don’t force turnovers and commit plenty, good enough for the fifth-worst turnover differential in the league. Without those takeaways, posting a solid score becomes increasingly difficult. If you factor in that Atlanta also averages a league-worst 1.5 sacks per game, the task becomes nearly impossible. Barring a shutout, the Falcons don’t offer a big enough reward for the risk you’re taking. Their floor might as well be lower than the basement. You can do better elsewhere.
SIT: Pittsburgh Steelers (at Philadelphia Eagles)
The battle for Pennsylvania features two top teams in each conference as the Steelers travel to Philadelphia to meet the Eagles. Pittsburgh brings their impressive defense on the road, hoping for a rivalry win to add to a magical season already. They are, without a doubt, one of fantasy’s best units. While they earned a spot in the sit section for this week, we can’t fault you for starting them. We suggest you temper your expectations since they’re facing an impressive Philly offense led by Saquon Barkley. The Eagles don’t turn the ball over, averaging less than one per game, limiting the Steelers’ ability to rack up D/ST points. It makes perfect sense to ride with what got you to the playoffs, but don’t expect a huge number from Pittsburgh in Week 15. Don’t be afraid to sit this unit in Week 15 if you can.
SIT: Cincinnati Bengals (at Tennessee Titans)
The Bengals got some of their mojo back with a win over the Cowboys on Monday night. That doesn’t mean they’re automatically in the fantasy circle of trust though. Unlike the Jets from the start section, the Bengals don’t offer the upside in a matchup we’d otherwise be looking to target. We’ve seen what New York is capable of and are willing to take the plunge.
From the Cincinnati side, we’ve seen a team that’s been horrendous defensively for most of the season. Everything about this matchup screams to start the Bengals. Everything about the Bengals season screams to avoid them. Will Levis is capable of tossing multiple touchdowns to his team or the other team, making him an exciting player to watch each week. That level of uncertainty is something we want no part of right now. With the margin for error gone, you’d be better off going elsewhere in a win-or-go-home week.