Admin December 12, 2024
NFL Overreactions Week 14
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down the biggest NFL storylines from Week 14.
Sports Seriously
The NFC West is the most wide-open division in the NFL entering Week 15. Depending on the result of “Thursday Night Football,” the division’s playoff picture will either become clearer or even tighter packed.
The Los Angeles Rams are heading north to face the San Francisco 49ers in a matchup that will likely determine which team has the best shot at challenging the Seattle Seahawks for the divisional crown. The Rams (7-6) enter the contest just one game off the Seahawks’ pace while the 49ers are in the NFC West cellar with a 6-7 record.
A Los Angeles win would position them to jump into first place if Seattle loses to the Green Bay Packers on “Sunday Night Football.” A San Francisco win would create the possibility of a three-team logjam of 7-game winners behind Seattle, which could make the divisional tiebreakers all the more important entering the final few weeks of the season.
The Rams boast one of the NFL’s richest offenses regarding skill-position weapons, while the 49ers are trying to overcome several significant losses, including that of top receiver Brandon Aiyuk and top running backs Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell.
The 49ers’ unpredictable offense will make this an intriguing game for bettors searching for good value picks. There will be some undervalued player props and longshot touchdowns that could score, especially if Isaac Guerendo is unable to play.
What are the best bets for “Thursday Night Football?” Here are some props and anytime TD bets to consider for “TNF’s” Week 15 NFC West clash.
Thursday Night Football best bets
All odds are via BetMGM as of Thursday.
Kyren Williams OVER 73.5 rushing yards (-115)
The 49ers are coming off a good defensive performance against the Chicago Bears‘ running game, but it’s hard to imagine that continuing into Week 15. San Francisco allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushers in Week 12 and 13, so they may struggle to fully contain Williams, especially if Nick Bosa remains out of action.
While Blake Corum is mixing into the game more often than earlier in the season, Williams has remained effective and seems to improve as the season progresses. He is averaging 87.3 rushing yards per game over his last four outings, and he fared well even in a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, racking up 72 yards on 16 carries.
The one concern bettors may have about Williams is that he just handled a career-high 29 carries in Week 14 and is facing a quick turnaround. That may not be of great concern, as Williams faced a similar situation last season, logging what was then a career-high 27 carries ahead of a short week. He still got 22 carries on the Thursday and over 100 yards in the contest.
As such, the Rams probably won’t be afraid to lean on Williams, especially since they have to win to continue their climb up the muddled NFC West standings. That should give him the volume needed to surpass this 73.5-yard total.
Jauan Jennings OVER 5.5 receptions (+110)
Jennings has enjoyed a breakout season for the 49ers and has developed into one of Brock Purdy‘s favorite targets since Aiyuk’s season-ending injury. Jennings has averaged 8.4 targets and 6.4 receptions per game since becoming a full-time starter in Week 9, and he has a great matchup against a Rams defense he torched for 11 catches, 175 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3.
The Rams will likely pay more attention to Jennings than they did in that game, but it’s not like they can completely ignore Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. That should allow Jennings to continue getting open, as he is averaging a respectable 2.5 yards of separation this season, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Betting Jennings to score a touchdown could pay off, but the safer bet is to target his relatively low, plus-money receptions total. He has posted at least seven catches in three of his last five games, so it would hardly surprise if he’s able to do that again in a good matchup.
Matthew Stafford UNDER 0.5 rushing yards (-120)
This bet may not seem all that palatable on the surface. After all, it would take Stafford just one modest scramble to guarantee the over would hit here. That could leave bettors feeling foolish if it happens early in the game.
Stafford has only run the ball for positive yardage in a game twice this season. One came against the Eagles, during which he had a 15-yard scramble, his longest run since 2020. The other was a 3-yard outing against the New Orleans Saints, where he had a long run of just 4 yards.
Suffice to say that Stafford – who has run for just 11 yards on 17 carries this year – isn’t looking to run. He will if he has to, but he figures to remain planted in the pocket as much as possible. That shouldn’t be too difficult for him, as the 49ers are one of the NFL’s best at preventing quarterback runs. San Francisco has only allowed 42 carries to the position this season (fourth-fewest in the NFL).
As long as Fred Warner can fire off the ball when he sees the quarterback move, Stafford will likely put a goose egg or worse on the board in Week 15.
Kyle Juszczyk anytime TD (+750)
This is a longshot, but it just might work. The 49ers might be down their top four running backs for this Week 15 game, pending Guerendo’s health. If he can’t play, that will open the door for the 49ers to use a true back-by-committee approach.
Patrick Taylor, Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Israel Abanikanda may all have a shot to score, pending the rotation at running back, but backing Juszczyk seems like a solid value proposition. The 12-year veteran has just 19 touches this season, but four have come in the red zone. That included a goal-line carry against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13, as snow fell at Highmark Stadium.
Juszczyk fumbled on that goal-line carry against the Bills, but that came in bad conditions. Those in San Francisco figure to be more favorable, and Kyle Shanahan could look to trust the typically sure-handed fullback near the goal line as a result. It wouldn’t be too much of a surprise for him to at least get a shot, and one chance might be all we need to pay off these +750 odds.