NFL Week 14 picks: Why you should consider Seahawks, Saints and Chargers on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets ahead of Sunday’s games.
Debates have longed raged on about whether the sequel is better than the original. Whether it’s that creators have run out of ideas is anyone’s guess, but there’s something special about going through something for the first time.
Fantasy managers had to go through “Byemaggedon” in Week 12 and now they’ll get to do it again with “Byemaggedon: The Sequel” in Week 14.
The Lions and Packers have already finished their work for the week, but six more teams won’t be joining the festivities on Sunday and Monday. The Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots and Commanders all get a week off to kick back and relax.
However, fantasy managers won’t be relaxing heading into what is the final week of the regular season across many leagues. Maybe you’re in contention and haven’t secured a spot in the playoffs. Maybe you’ve been eliminated for weeks, but want to play spoiler. Maybe your team already secured a playoff spot.
Whatever the reason, months of preparation, trash talk, trades, waiver claims, start/sit decisions and more likely come down to just about 15 hours of football on Sunday and Monday. Buckle up. If you’re lucky, “Byemaggedon” will result in giving you a reason to send the group chat the NSYNC “Bye Bye Bye” music video on Tuesday morning after eliminating your bitter rival.
Here’s a look at who to start and who should take a seat in Week 14.
For all the talk about Tagovailoa’s struggles in cold weather, he wasn’t the main problem in the Dolphins’ Week 13 loss to the Packers. He gets a much easier matchup in Week 14, at home against a Jets defense that may be without the services of its top cornerback, Sauce Gardner (hamstring).
Tagovailoa is averaging 323.3 passing yards and three touchdowns per game over his last three starts. That makes him a true QB1 until he cools off.
Nick Bosa has missed the last two games for the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed 36.5 points and 348.5 yards per game over those two contests. That should position Williams and Chicago’s offense well to make interim head coach Thomas Brown’s debut in place of Matt Eberflus a good one.
The rule of thumb in Week 14 is to trust the NFC North quarterbacks. The Falcons have allowed 21 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks in 2024, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. That should give Darnold, who has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games, a high floor in a favorable matchup for the Vikings’ receiving corps.
Purdy has now played three career games without left tackle Trent Williams blocking on his blindside. Purdy is 0-3 in those contests while averaging 243.7 passing yards per game with two total touchdowns and three interceptions.
It’s hard to recommend trusting Purdy without knowing if Williams (ankle) is playing. Thus, it’s better to steer clear of the 49ers quarterback, especially with the team’s top two running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, being placed on IR with injuries ahead of Week 14.
Add in that the Bears have allowed the second-fewest fantasy quarterbacks this season and this looks like a spot in which to fade Purdy.
Trusting Cousins in the proverbial “revenge game” against the Vikings may sound appealing on the surface, but this is a tough matchup for the Falcons starter. Minnesota has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and its last five opponents have combined for just four passing touchdowns.
Cousins has also struggled over his last three games, averaging 241.3 passing yards per game with no touchdowns and a whopping six interceptions. He could eventually snap out of his funk, but trusting him to do it now isn’t a risk worth taking.
Winston just threw for 497 yards and four touchdowns against a great Denver Broncos defense, so some will be inclined to trust him against the Steelers. That said, Pittsburgh has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and should have a chance to force Winston into turnovers, as the Broncos did on “Monday Night Football.”
Winston also failed to record a touchdown in his first meeting against the Steelers this season, so this isn’t a good matchup for him. He may have the volume needed to rack up yardage, but as always, his efficacy will come down to his touchdown to interception ratio.
Brown has been a top-15 fantasy RB in all formats over his last four games. He’s reaching must-start territory now and should be a great option this week.
Dallas allows the second-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (147.6) and has given up four touchdowns to the position in the last three weeks. The Cowboys played better against the Commanders and Giants than in prior weeks, but Brown has the skill set to exploit the defense as a threat in both the run and pass.
Tracy Jr.’s been a favorite in these start sections for much of the season. He could be another good start this week against one of the worst run defenses in the league. New Orleans has allowed five touchdowns to running backs in their last four games and 128.5 total yards per game to the position in that span. If your typical starter is on a bye, Tracy Jr. is a good option.
Things are not looking good for the 49ers offense. They’ve scored 10 points per game in the last two games and have committed six turnovers. Star running back Christian McCaffrey has another long-term injury, and early-season fantasy darling Jordan Mason is out with a high ankle sprain.
Guerendo should be a good play this week. The rookie had 19 yards and a touchdown on four carries last week and played well in more action against Dallas (18 touches, 102 yards, one touchdown) and Seattle (10 rushes, 99 yards). Chicago allowed 185 total yards per game to opposing running back groups in the last five weeks and four touchdowns in that span.
Pollard was a start last week and was a dud against Washington with 68 total yards and a fumble lost. This week could be a chance for him to bounce back. The Jaguars have given up 177 total yards per game to running backs over their last five matchups. They’re not keeping runners out of the end zone, either, with eight touchdowns in that span. Pollard should be better this week.
Davis could be a great pickup if you’re struggling for a FLEX option this week and the waiver wire’s running a bit thin. He’s rostered in just 30% of Yahoo leagues and 11% of leagues on ESPN. Buffalo’s running game has become a bigger part of their identity in 2024, and Davis has had some great games, including an 11-carry, 63-yard effort against San Francisco last week that saw him score the game’s first touchdown.
Los Angeles is still reeling from the 324 total yards and three touchdowns they allowed to Philadelphia running backs in Week 12. Last week, they let the Saints running backs put up 126 total yards. Buffalo’s offense is much closer to Philadelphia’s than New Orleans’ unit and could make Davis a worthwhile start.
Well, Williams was a start last week and disappointed. The Broncos managed just 63 rushing yards as a team, no thanks to Williams. He had a team-high eight carries for -2 yards (not a typo), along with two catches for six yards. Against an average Raiders run defense, this was disappointing. Rookie Audric Estime was far more effective (seven carries for 44 yards).
This week, Williams and the Broncos host the Browns. Cleveland has allowed just 109 total yards per game to opposing running back groups this season. They’re technically 24th in rushing yards per game allowed, but that’s inflated due to multiple games against dual-threat quarterbacks. Cleveland has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. If Williams can’t get it going against Las Vegas, Cleveland’s far from a bounce-back opponent.
Edwards led Los Angeles with just six carries for 32 yards last week against Atlanta. This week, the Chargers face one of the best run defenses in the league on the road. The Chiefs allowed Sincere McCormick to run for 64 yards last week. That’s the highest total all season for an individual running back.
The last time these teams faced off, Edwards had 19 yards on six carries. He may get more opportunities with J.K. Dobbins out this week, but it’s not enough going against such a tough run defense. Keep him on the bench if you can.
Hubbard struggled against Tampa Bay last week despite leading the Panthers’ backfield with 12 carries. His crucial fumble in overtime sealed his worst fantasy performance since Week 1.
Philadelphia’s been one of the best defenses in the league since its bye. They’ve put the clamps on running backs in recent weeks, especially. Derrick Henry managed 111 yards on 22 touches, but Baltimore’s running game is more effective than Carolina’s at this point of the season. Hubbard could be in for a tough day.
Jones had a season-low 28 total yards on eight touches last week against Arizona. He also lost a fumble for the second week in a row. A receiving touchdown saved what was otherwise a terrible day for the running back after his solid performance against Chicago in Week 12.
He could struggle again at home against Atlanta. The Falcons’ pass rush is nonexistent, but they’re playing well in run defense. Atlanta’s allowing just 119 total yards per game to opposing running back groups this season and has given up just two touchdowns to the position in their last four outings. Jones may not find the end zone to compensate for a low-yardage game again.
On the other side of that matchup, Allgeier could struggle too. He may be a FLEX candidate for some folks due to Byemaggeddon II, but he isn’t worth the start. He’s struggled over the last two games, with 21 total yards in that span. This week, Atlanta faces the toughest run defense by yards in the NFL. Minnesota has given up just one touchdown to running backs in their last five games. There simply isn’t the volume after Bijan Robinson for Allgeier to be a worthwhile start this week.
Hall had a rough Week 13 at home against an improved Seahawks defense. He had 60 yards on 12 carries but lost his first fumble since Week 1. That made for his worst day in fantasy since Week 5.
This week likely won’t be much better. Miami’s No. 9-ranked run defense is better than Seattle’s and the Dolphins haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. They’ve given up 107 yards per game and two touchdowns to running backs in the last four weeks. Hall’s been inconsistent this season. If he’s a must-start, that’s understandable, but don’t expect a standout day from the top fantasy football pick.
Thanks to the generally poor play of the Titans this season, Westbrook-Ikhine’s late-season fantasy breakout has largely flown under the radar. He’s scored at least one touchdown in seven of the last eight weeks and has been the 14th-most productive wideout in fantasy football over the last four weeks.
In Week 14, Westbrook-Ikhine and the Titans get a divisional rivalry game against the Jaguars. Jacksonville ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season and has allowed the highest success rate on dropbacks of any team in the NFL over the last five weeks.
It seems that McConkey will remain on this list as a start ’em candidate until either he gets injured or fantasy football managers stop sleeping on the rookie wideout. He’s here for a third straight week after a Week 13 outing in which he was responsible for 117 of the 147 total passing yards quarterback Justin Herbert threw for on Sunday.
If Herbert’s reliance on the first-year out of Georgia weren’t enough, McConkey gets a matchup against the Chiefs in Week 14. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to receivers over the last four weeks thanks to a passing defense that has looked leakier and leakier in the wake of cornerback Jaylen Watson’s Week 6 ankle injury.
Who will Nabers be catching passes from on Sunday? Given his performance on Thanksgiving, it may not matter.
One week after the rookie wide receiver called out head coach and offensive play-caller Brian Daboll for not getting him enough touches, Nabers got 13 targets against the Cowboys – his most since Week 8. He hauled in eight of those passes for 69 yards and even recorded a four-yard rush.
Nabers won’t be a great fit in non-PPR leagues given the state of the Giants’ quarterback situation. For those holding onto the rookie in PPR leagues though, it’s fair to assume that he’ll see plenty of targets against a Saints defense that has struggled to limit wide receiver production in recent weeks.
Quarterback Bryce Young has played well in recent weeks, and Thielen was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football last week in his second game back from injury. Why is he a sit ’em?
Ultimately, it comes down to just how good the Eagles’ defense has been. Philadelphia has been able to shut down even the most explosive of passing offenses and wide receivers since their Week 5 bye. Young, Thielen and the Panthers are going to have a hard time getting the passing game going in Week 14.
Where Westbrook-Ikhine has quietly been very productive in fantasy football over the last few weeks, Metcalf has been quietly unproductive. The veteran wide receiver has found the end zone just once in his last seven games, and he hasn’t been a top-25 receiver in fantasy since suffering a knee injury in Week 7 that left him sidelined for two weeks.
In recent weeks, second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken on a larger role in the Seahawks’ passing offense. He’s had more targets than Metcalf in two of the three weeks since Seattle’s bye, and he’s put up more yardage in every game.
In addition to contending with the drop in target share, Metcalf will be up against a Cardinals defense that has been among the league’s best against the pass in the last four weeks.
Tillman suffered a concussion in the Browns’ last meeting with the Steelers in Week 12 and already missed one game while recovering from the head injury. What made his Week 13 absence more concerning was the fact that he had extra days of rest coming out of that Week 12 game, which was on Thursday.
Even if Tillman plays in Week 14, it may not be at 100%. In addition, the Jameis Winston-led Browns passing offense has started to rely more heavily on Jerry Jeudy over the last three weeks. After Jeudy put up 235 yards and a touchdown on nine catches against his old team on Monday night, Tillman may just be relegated to the No. 2 role in Cleveland’s wide receivers room when he returns.
Some fantasy owners are panicking about Cade Otton, who has struggled since the bye in Week 11, but you must pump the brakes. Tampa Bay blew out the Giants and dominated on the ground in Week 13. Then, on Sunday against Carolina, Otton finished second in targets behind only Mike Evans. Yes, Evans will dominate the looks from Baker Mayfield, but Otton also had a highly valuable end zone target that was broken up against the Panthers.
Since Evans returned from injury, Otton’s usage (89% route rate, 16% target rate and share) is easily startable. The Bucs will host the Raiders on Sunday, who are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. He’s still a top-10 option at the position, and he will reward you for playing him in Week 14.
With six teams on a bye, the options at tight end call for some desperation dart throws. Jake Ferguson wouldn’t typically be considered a “desperation” start, but coming off two straight absences after suffering a concussion, you may be hesitant. However, you can set it and forget it this week with “Big Ferg.”
If Ferguson returns this week, he will be in a great spot: the Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Pat Freiermuth just posted season-highs last week against the Cincinnati D, which is ranked 30th in pass defense entering Week 14. If you’re relying on Ferguson, you may also want to have Luke Schoonmaker in your back pocket, especially in the small chance that Ferguson will sit another week.
Dissly is another veteran tight end who has been more than serviceable at times in 2024. He finished with a season-best four receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 11 and followed it up with a solid line against the Ravens. Last week, on the road in Atlanta, the Chargers’ offense struggled outside of Ladd McConkey. However, the rookie wide receiver injured his knee late in the game, and he could be limited on Sunday night.
Dissly gets to dish out more pain this week against a struggling Chiefs defense secondary. Dissly has received at least six targets in four of the last seven games, and he shouldn’t disappear on Sunday night. Kansas City has allowed the most yards to tight ends, and the Chargers offense will likely throw the ball to keep pace with Mahomes and Kansas City on the road. Don’t doubt Dissly.
Cole Kmet was a recommended sit for your lineups in Week 13, and he is here again in Week 14. The veteran was coming off one of his best games of the season in Week 12 and posted a dud against Detroit on Thanksgiving. The Bears trio of receivers will likely continue to do most of the damage through the air. Look for D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to be featured. The Niners have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Linebacker Fred Warner patrols the middle field, making life difficult for tight ends against San Fran. With so many mouths to feed in Chicago, you can’t count on Kmet.
Seattle is among the NFL’s bottom five teams in field goal attempts per game, but Myers doesn’t need many to rack up points. Over his last three games, he has made four kicks from 50-plus yards. He has made 7-of-9 attempts from 50-plus in 12 games this season, so Mike Macdonald figures to keep trusting him from long distance.
The Cardinals are allowing 2.3 field goal attempts per game, tied for 10th most in the NFL, so that could give Myers a chance at a couple of longer-distance boots.
Provided that the weather stays relatively mild in East Rutherford, Grupe has a great matchup in Week 14. The Giants rank middle-of-the-pack in field goals allowed per game, but they just lost their best defensive player, Dexter Lawrence, to a season-ending injury. That should allow the Saints to more easily move the ball on New York’s defense, which is already allowing 25 points per game at home this season, seventh-most in the NFL.
Grupe has made at least two field goals in four of his last five games. In the lone game he didn’t, he converted on all five of his extra point tries. He has a high floor and could end up being a top-10 fantasy scorer this week given the state of the Giants’ defense.
The Bengals are averaging 27.9 points per game this season, tied for the fifth most in the NFL. The Cowboys are allowing 28.3 points per game, tied for the third most in the league. York has only made 75% of his career field goals and is in his first game taking over for the injured Evan McPherson, but he should have plenty of opportunities to kick in what looks like a “Monday Night Football” shootout on paper. That gives him a high floor and makes him a solid dart throw.
The Bears look like a good matchup on paper, as they are allowing 2.6 field goal attempts per game in 2024, good for the fourth-most in the NFL. However, Moody has made just one field goal in each of his last three games and has only attempted four extra points during that span. The 49ers’ offense doesn’t figure to get better in the wake of Christian McCaffrey‘s season-ending knee injury, so that will continue to limit the inconsistent Moody’s opportunities.
Over his last six games, Koo has made just 6 of 12 field goals. He has missed at least one attempt in four of those six contests, so it’s hard to trust him to consistently score against a Vikings team that is allowing just 1.8 field goal attempts per game, tied for the sixth-fewest in the league.
The Vikings are also tied for second in the NFL in takeaways, which could prove problematic for the Falcons. Kirk Cousins has thrown six interceptions without a touchdown over his last three games, so if his turnover woes continue in the red zone, Koo could be robbed of some prime scoring chances.
Despite the Steelers defense surrendering 32 of the Bengals’ 38 points in Week 13, Pittsburgh managed to turn in a double-digit point performance in Cincinnati. They did it thanks to four sacks, two fumble recoveries, an interception, a touchdown, and a partridge in a pear tree.
Now they get the benefit of seeing the same team they saw two weeks ago on a snowy Thursday night in Cleveland. The first round went to Jameis Winston and the Browns, but don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Winston is coming off a classic performance in Week 13, one that saw him toss three interceptions, two of which went for touchdowns. These division games are typically low-scoring affairs. With a feisty Steelers defense hoping to avenge their Week 12 loss, the ceiling this week is, like Russell Wilson, unlimited.
The Dolphins are back home in the friendly confines of the Sunshine State following an unhappy Thanksgiving beatdown on the frozen tundra in Green Bay. Now that they’re defrosted, the Phins can get back to trying to track down a playoff spot. The window is closing rapidly, but welcoming the Jets to town might be just what the doctor ordered. New York is doing their best snowbird impression in Week 14, exchanging the layers for some lighter clothes and a potential visit to the beach.
While the Jets still have a few more weeks before heading to the beach full-time, recent history suggests that expectations should be very low for the team. The Dolphins have dominated this matchup over the years, especially in Miami. The Jets haven’t won there since 2014 when the Rex Ryan-led team quarterbacked by Geno Smith won 37-24 in Week 17. In what’s proven to be a house of horrors, it would be difficult to believe in any positive outcome for this grounded plane. The Jets invested everything they had in jumping out to a first-half lead against the Seahawks in Week 13 before collapsing in the second half. The fuel tank is empty, but the tank for the draft is filled all the way up.
In the spirit of revisiting matchups we just saw two weeks ago, we’ll also turn to the Seahawks, who hit the road to visit the Cardinals in the desert. Coming off two dominant fantasy performances, the Seattle defense has scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. After holding Arizona to just six points in Week 12, there’s reason to believe they’ll have another solid day at the office.
The Seahawks sacked Kyler Murray five times in their recent meeting, a season-high for the Cardinals’ signal caller. In two outings since the bye week, Murray has been average at best in terms of fantasy production. While he ran for 48 yards against the Vikings, this Seahawks defense kept him to just two carries and nine rushing yards. They are winners of six straight in this series, a trend that appears likely to continue in Week 14. In what could be a statement game in the NFC West race, we’ll back the Seattle defense to do it again, giving themselves a nice cushion over a division rival.
The Week 14 slate features a Kirk Cousins revenge game, but it appears that it will be his former team that has the last laugh. He’s coming off a four-interception performance and has gone three games without a touchdown. The calls for Michael Penix Jr. have only grown as a result. These Falcons are some wounded birds right now, losing three straight and their lead over the Buccaneers in the NFC South. It’s unlikely that a trip to Minnesota and a raucous U.S. Bank Stadium will suddenly fix that.
This one won’t be popular, but popularity doesn’t win anything except reality television shows. The Bills have forced at least one turnover in every game. They are a top five D/ST unit in fantasy. All signs point towards another solid showing from Buffalo, but expectations seem a bit out of control.
They are coming off a blowout win over the 49ers after snow blanketed the Buffalo area, but these aren’t the same 49ers anymore. Injuries have depleted that team, and they even lost both running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, in the process. That’s not to take away anything from the Bills, but they are now traveling across the country after just clinching the AFC East to play the Rams. If there was ever a letdown spot for Buffalo, this is probably it. A potential Super Bowl preview looms with the Lions the following week, so we are here to deflate the Bills’ balloon, just a little bit.
The 49ers are back in the sit section once again, as we continue to beat the drum that you cannot trust this unit. Like the Bills, we aren’t putting much stock into their performance in the snow. We are, however, putting plenty of stock into how they’ve looked as the injuries have piled up. The Bears don’t have an explosive offense like the Bills or Packers, who posted 38 points against this unit in Week 12, but they do profile as a team that should put up a respectable performance.
It was clear that the team was done with having Matt Eberflus as their coach. Plenty has trickled out since the move was made official, but this is more of an endorsement of now-interim head coach, Thomas Brown. After a lifeless first half against the Lions, Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense turned it around, nearly pulling off an improbable comeback. There is a great chance that momentum carries in Week 14 against another battered defense, especially considering the history of coach firings providing a bump in play the following week.
If you’re in need of a fantasy defense, the Bengals are an attractive streaming option. However, they’ve given up at least 30 points in three straight games, most recently to the Steelers who essentially ended Cincinnati’s playoff hopes. Having something to play for is a big motivating factor this time of year and the Bengals have been demoralized at every turn. The Cowboys, on the other hand, just secured their first home win of the year with a holiday win over the Giants. On a team littered with backups hoping to secure jobs for next season, motivation is on the side of the Cowboys here. They may not win, but Dallas won’t go quietly into the night, meaning the Bengals should be kept on the waiver wire.