College Football Playoff projections: Live CFP bracket predictions for 12-team field

Admin November 30, 2024

(This story was updated with new information)

The final week of the college football regular season is here, which means the College Football Playoff is just around the corner.

Several teams were in a comfortable position to make the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff entering Week 14, while others had some work to do to reach the CFP party this season.

All “Power Four” championship games — SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 — have spots up for grabs as well, adding to the high stakes that already come in Rivalry Week for some teams.

No. 12 Clemson (9-3) and No. 13 Alabama (8-3) entered Week 14 as two teams hoping for some chaos, as the Tigers and Crimson Tide were the “first two teams out” in Tuesday’s CFP rankings release.

But Clemson (9-3) failed to dispatch South Carolina (9-3), falling 17-14 at home Saturday. And the chaos continued with No. 2 Ohio State (10-2) falling, 13-10, to unranked Michigan (7-5) in Columbus.

The games could create movement in the next CFP rankings. To help sort it out, here’s a live look our CFP projections as Week 14 games become finalized, including a look at what the CFP top 25 and projected 12-team bracket looked like heading into the final week of the regular season:

This section will be updated once the games become finalized. Last update Saturday, Nov. 30 at 7:24 p.m. ET.

Here’s a look at scores and results in Week 14 from the top 20 in the latest US LBM Coaches Poll:

Oregon: vs. Washington at 7:30 p.m. ET
Ohio State: Lost to Michigan, 13-10
Texas: at No. 19 Texas A&M at 7:30 p.m. ET
Penn State: Beat Maryland 44-7
Notre Dame: Beat USC 49-35
Georgia: Beat Georgia Tech, 44-42 in 8OT
Miami: Lost to Syracuse 42-38
Tennessee: Beat Vanderbilt, 36-23
SMU: Beat Cal 38-6
Indiana: vs. Purdue at 7 p.m. ET
Boise State: Beat Oregon State 34-18
Clemson: Lost to No. 14 South Carolina, 17-14
Alabama: Beat Auburn 28-14
South Carolina: Beat No. 12 Clemson, 17-14
Arizona State: Beat Arizona 49-7
Ole Miss: Beat Mississippi State 26-14
Iowa State: vs. Kansas State at 7:30 p.m. ET
Tulane: Lost to Memphis 34-24
Texas A&M: vs. No. 3 Texas at 7:30 p.m. ET
BYU: vs. Houston at 10:15 p.m. ET

Here’s a live projection of the 12-team CFP as Week 14 games become finalized:

Last updated Saturday, Nov. 30 at 7:24 p.m. ET. Records reflected on Week 14 results.

Oregon (11-0)
Texas (10-1)
SMU (11-1)
Boise State (11-1)
Penn State (10-1)
Notre Dame (11-1)
Georgia (10-2)
Tennessee (10-2)
Ohio State (10-2)
Indiana (10-1)
Miami (10-2)
Arizona State (9-2)

* bolded teams denote shift (up/down) in the projected CFP bracket from current CFP bracket.

NOTRE DAME BEATS USC: One team that won’t have to worry about whether it makes the CFP is Notre Dame, which with its 49-35 win over rival USC is all but guaranteed to make the playoff. The Fighting Irish, of course, won’t be able to progress higher than the fifth seed, as its independent status means it can’t be a conference champion.

Either way, Marcus Freeman and Co. can comfortably expect to host a home game in the first round of the playoff.

ALABAMA WINS IRON BOWL: The Crimson Tide doesn’t control its own destiny to make the playoff, but Kalen DeBoer and Co. got a lot of help on Saturday with several notable losses, including by ACC teams Miami and Clemson. Alabama also helped itself with a 28-14 win in a chippy Iron Bowl, keeping alive its hopes of a playoff berth.

Ohio State losing to Michigan won’t have much of an effect on whether Alabama can sneak into the field, but at this point, the Crimson Tide should be hoping for chaos throughout conference championship weekend.

SYRACUSE BEATING MIAMI: Another twist in the upcoming CFP top 25 is coming up, again out of the ACC. Kyle McCord led Syracuse to a 42-38 upset of No. 6 Miami, knocking the Hurricanes out of ACC championship game contention. Whether the Hurricanes remain in the top 12, but it does open the door for Clemson to make the CFP as a conference champion — if it can beat SMU in Charlotte, North Carolina, for the ACC title game.

Will ACC be a one-bid league? Conference championship weekend should be telling.

SOUTH CAROLINA BEATING CLEMSON: As one of the first two teams out entering Saturday, Clemson didn’t help itself out by dropping its final to No. 14 South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks win over the Tigers is an intriguing one when it comes to the impact it could have on the CFP top 25 and 12-team bracket, as South Carolina has now won six straight.

The Gamecocks were ranked No. 15 in the CFP top 25 on Tuesday — four spots out from the bracket as ASU moved into the No. 12 seed as the current leader of the Big 12. With a ranked win over Clemson, Shane Beamers’ squad could see a rise heading into Tuesday’s CFP rankings. But a significant rise into the 12-team bracket is unlikely for the Gamecocks as they won’t be playing in the SEC championship game next Saturday. All told, likely a “first team out” spot for South Carolina come Tuesday.

OHIO STATE’S LOSS: With No. 2 Ohio State stunned by Michigan, the top of the CFP bracket took an unexpected hit. At two losses on the season, the Buckeyes were eliminated from the Big Ten championship contention and must wait until selection Sunday on Dec. 8 to confirm their playoff fate. The Buckeyes still own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Indiana and will remain ahead of Indiana in this projection at the No. 10 seed.

TENNESSEE SECURES CFP SPOT: Tennessee looked to be on upset alert early against Vanderbilt, but the Vols staved off a 14-0 deficit and routed the Commodores 36-23 in Nashville. The win, coupled with Ohio State’s loss, gives UT a chance to host a playoff game at Neyland Stadium.

GEORGIA STAVES OFF UPSET: Georgia avoided playoff disaster with a 44-42 win in the eighth overtime thanks to running back Nate Frazier. Kirby Smart’s squad had to overcome a considerable amount of adversity Friday vs. the Yellow Jackets, as the Bulldogs came back from two deficits — 17-0 at halftime and 27-13 with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter — to force overtime. The Bulldogs will face No. 3 Texas or No. 19 Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 7 for an opportunity to secure one of the top four seeds and a first-round bye.

Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame made up the top five of the CFP top 25 from Tuesday’s CFP rankings. The Ducks and Buckeyes have been the Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the CFP rankings in each of the last four rankings releases.

Here’s a full look at the CFP top 25 from the most recent CFP rankings release by the CFP selection committee:

Records updated to reflect on Week 14 results