Admin November 28, 2024
NFL Week 13 picks: Colts, Broncos, and Seahawks
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for NFL Week 13 games, including Thursday’s Thanksgiving slate.
Lorenzo’s Locks
This Thanksgiving, be thankful for the grand spread of sides wide receiver options to choose from.
After the first “Byemaggedon” of Week 12, Week 13 swings in the opposite direction. There are no teams on a bye for the first time since Week 8, meaning there is an abundance of options to start at the wide receiver and flex spots in fantasy football.
Not all options are equal. Some wideouts face exceptionally favorable matchups this week, giving them the potential for big fantasy production. Others will have a much harder time against defenses that have been stingy to opposing wide receivers in fantasy in recent weeks.
These are the three receivers to start in Week 13 if possible, as well as the three receivers to avoid:
Fantasy football start ’em: Week 13 wide receivers
Tank Dell, Houston Texans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Dell’s role has gone back down in the weeks since Nico Collins’ return from his hamstring injury, but the second-year wideout is still the No. 2 option in the Texans’ passing offense. This week, the Texans take on the Jaguars, featuring a defense that not only ranks 32nd in the NFL in dropback EPA (0.405) and dropback success rate (59.0%) over the last four weeks, but also is 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in that span.
Collins will continue to eat, but he’s already a weekly must-start. Dell should be slated for a big week as well against Jacksonville.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (at Atlanta Falcons)
Another week, another McConkey appearance as a “start ’em” receiver.
The rookie wide receiver is the No. 15 receiver in all of fantasy football this year, but he’s still rostered in under 90% of leagues and starting in even fewer leagues. This week, he gets a matchup with Atlanta’s defense, the unit that has averaged the most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers over the last four weeks, including six touchdowns (tied for second-most).
With Quentin Johnston’s drop issues rearing their ugly head in Week 12, quarterback Justin Herbert may be relying even more heavily on McConkey. He’s an easy “start” for Week 13.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati Bengals)
A divisional matchup against a team that has had a shaky track record against wide receivers all season is a favorable scenario. Pickens had a subpar outing in Week 12, but that can largely be attributed to the snow factor in Cleveland. It will be cold, but not snowy, in Cincinnati on Sunday.
Quarterback Russell Wilson and the top Steelers receiver have excelled together in their outings since Week 7. That should continue against the Bengals, a team averaging nearly 34 fantasy points per game to receivers this year.
Fantasy football sit ’em: Week 13 wide receivers
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Addison was the No. 1 wide receiver in all of fantasy football last week against the Bears. This week, he faces a much more difficult defense.
Arizona ranks second in the NFL in EPA allowed (-0.158) and first in success rate (35.8%) over the last four weeks. The Cardinals also rank ninth in average fantasy points allowed to receivers in that span. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s touchdown last week was the first Jonathan Gannon’s squad had allowed to a wide receiver since Week 6.
The fact that Justin Jefferson also struggled to get going last week probably means he’ll see a heftier target share as well, which does not bode well for Addison.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (at Green Bay Packers)
Waddle was the No. 3 wide receiver in all of fantasy football last week against the Patriots. This week, not only does he face a much stingier defense, but he also will have to contend with the weather and his quarterback’s history of poor performance in the cold.
The Packers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on average in the last four weeks. That mark may improve on Thursday night, when the two teams prepare to kick off in temperatures below freezing in Green Bay.
In games with a listed temperature of 45 degrees or lower, Tagovailoa is 0-7 with a completion rate under 60%, eight passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions and a 71.13 passer rating. According to the Weather Channel, it will be 27 degrees Fahrenheit around kickoff, with winds reaching 10 mph.
Waddle’s Week 12 breakout was an anomaly in a season that has largely been a disappointment for the former Alabama receiver. Don’t expect the trend of 20 or more points to continue this week.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Shakir had a nice stretch of games ahead of the Bills’ Week 12 bye, but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3. The 49ers have allowed one touchdown to a wideout in the last four weeks and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers in that span.
On top of those challenges, Shakir’s target share may also be diminished if receiver Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid both return from their respective injuries in Week 13. Amari Cooper also got another week to rest up and recover from his wrist injury, and each week that passes is another set of chances for the veteran to get more involved.
Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’ems, Week 13
Looking for more fantasy football advice? USA TODAY Sports has you covered:
→ Kickers are people, too: Here are some of the most clutch kickers to have on your fantasy team in Week 13.
→ Need an edge under center? Here are the best quarterback options to start and to sit in Week 13.
→ A good running back makes all the difference. A bad running back can cost you a lot of points. Here’s who to start and who to sit in Week 13.
→ Tight ends can be the perfect X-factor for any fantasy team. Here’s who you should start and sit in Week 13.
→ A good defense can shut down your fantasy opponent’s offense. Here are some D/ST options to start and sit for Week 13.