Admin November 28, 2024
NFL Week 13 picks: Colts, Broncos, and Seahawks
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for NFL Week 13 games, including Thursday’s Thanksgiving slate.
Lorenzo’s Locks
The NFL commands the Thanksgiving spotlight like no other entity in the sporting world. But as the regular season marches toward its conclusion, some teams will no doubt have a more difficult time than others in tapping into their gratitude this holiday season.
While the playoff picture remains entirely in flux with no berths clinched yet, there’s at least a modicum of hope out there for every franchise to finish strong. But with two teams – the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints – already having fired their head coaches, it’s clear that reality is setting in around the league.
Still, whether it’s a strength of this year’s group or a silver lining for next season, here’s one reason for each team to be thankful this year:
Arizona Cardinals: TE Trey McBride
Though Marvin Harrison Jr. has shown flashes of greatness, the No. 4 overall pick in this year’s draft hasn’t immediately taken on the role of go-to target as many assumed he would. Instead, McBride has made another stratospheric leap in his development, leading the team in catches (61), receiving yards (685) and target share (26.2%), with the latter two figures ranking second among all tight ends.
Atlanta Falcons: The NFC South
Not a lot of good vibes around the only division leader with a negative point differential (-30). At least the Falcons can be grateful for their lackluster competition, as Atlanta has what amounts to a two-game lead thanks to a sweep of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – though neither they nor the New Orleans Saints are sure to fade down the stretch,
Baltimore Ravens: Jerry Jones
Yes, the Dallas Cowboys’ 28-25 defeat in September helped Baltimore avoid a dreaded 0-3 start and propelled the team on an eventual five-game win streak, but Jones’ relevance to the Ravens extends beyond that. This past offseason, Derrick Henry was drawn to sign with Dallas had an offer materialized, but Jones responded by turning out his pockets, repeatedly claiming that a high-priced running back wasn’t in the Cowboys’ budget. Henry instead joined the Ravens and has averaged a career-best 6.0 yards per carry, taking a significant burden off leading MVP candidate Lamar Jackson.
Buffalo Bills: Improving health
Good fortune on this front matters immensely to contenders down the stretch, and few know that as well as the Bills, who have a strong chance to claim home-field advantage in the AFC if they can avoid further hits. A nicely timed bye this past weekend could allow for quick returns for the likes of tight end Dalton Kincaid, wide receiver Keon Coleman and right tackle Spencer Brown, who all missed the win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Linebacker Matt Milano also could soon make his season debut after sitting out due to a biceps injury, further boosting a defense that also saw cornerback Taron Johnson, linebacker Terrel Bernard and defensive tackle Ed Oliver miss multiple games.
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young’s quiet resurgence
Young’s chance to right the ship – and himself – in Carolina seemed to come to an abrupt end when the No. 1 pick in last year’s draft was benched after just two games this season, with the team not voicing any plan for a return. Since he resumed his QB1 role after Andy Dalton’s thumb injury, however, the young passer has quietly served up reminders of the potential that not long ago seemed so distant. For a franchise that has been unable to go more than a couple years without hitting reset, that might provide enough hope to at least get through the season.
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams’ spark
Expectations were clearly too lofty for both the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft and the Bears themselves. But the early results – from going 25 drives without a touchdown to Williams suffering from wild bouts of inaccuracy, especially when throwing deep – were particularly alarming, so much so that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired after just nine games with the team. But even as Chicago dropped its fifth consecutive game Sunday, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner flashed his singular playmaking abilities – and consistency as a passer – that made him one of the most coveted draft prospects in years.
Cincinnati Bengals: Better luck ahead – maybe?
With a 1-6 mark in one-score games, Cincinnati has seen very little break its way this season. Between that and the 2023 campaign being torpedoed by Joe Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury, it seems like a regression to the mean has to be coming at some point for what is still a talented and explosive group. That might not arrive until 2025, however, at which point wide receiver Tee Higgins is expected to be gone and a reimagining of a defense that ranks 28th in scoring (26.9 points allowed per game) likely will be necessary.
Cleveland Browns: A first-round pick, finally
Last year’s surprising run to the playoffs has given way to a season best described as a vacuum of joy. While the long-term outlook is still grim given the financial commitment to Deshaun Watson, at least the team can start its search for some needed cornerstones with its first Day 1 selection – likely somewhere in the top 10 – since trading for Watson in 2022.
Dallas Cowboys: Bragging rights, still
Even in what seems sure to go down as one of the most calamitous seasons of Jerry Jones’ reign, the Cowboys still managed to come out ahead of the Washington Commanders for the sixth time in the last seven meetings between the two rivals. A rematch in Week 18 could again provide Dallas with the rare opportunity to play spoiler.
Denver Broncos: Bo Nix’s growth
This nod easily could have gone to wide receiver Courtland Sutton or the surprising defense, each of which has lifted Denver’s rookie quarterback. But it’s Nix’s expanded comfort within the offense that has helped take the Broncos from fun early-season overachiever to legitimate playoff outfit. Though he still has a considerable way to go, his progress as an intermediate passer has been substantial, particularly during a five-game run in which he has thrown 13 touchdowns with just one interception.
Detroit Lions: A defense that won’t break
Losing former Defensive Player of the Year front-runner Aidan Hutchinson for the season to a broken tibia and fibula could have sent Aaron Glenn’s unit reeling. So, too, could have the other more minor injury hits. Yet here stands a group that has not given up a touchdown in the last 10 quarters, the best such streak for Detroit since 1983. Though an offense that looks likely to finish in the top five in scoring for the third straight year has been the focus of many, it’s the defense’s breakthrough that could prove the difference in the Lions’ push to make their first ever Super Bowl.
Green Bay Packers: Splashy free agents
Brian Gutekunst typically emphasizes the draft-and-develop method while spending only modestly in free agency. This past spring marked a significant shift, as the Packers paid up for marquee names in running back Josh Jacobs and safety Xavier McKinney. Each move has provided major dividends, as Jacobs has helped stabilize an up-and-down attack with his 944 rushing yards (third most in the NFL) while McKinney is on an All-Pro track with his seven interceptions, which are tied for the league lead.
Houston Texans: Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
At a time when little else is going right for the AFC South leaders, Houston is still getting top-line performances from arguably the league’s best pass-rushing tandem. The two have combined for 20 sacks this season, with Hunter adding five in the last two games. Houston has 42 sacks overall, and creating havoc off the edge is one of the few things that DeMeco Ryans’ crew can count on on a weekly basis.
Indianapolis Colts: Reason not to abandon Anthony Richardson
The ill-fated – and perhaps ill-reasoned – decision to turn to Joe Flacco for two games before reverting back seems to at least have stirred the right reaction from Richardson, who had a career day in leading Indianapolis to a comeback win over the New York Jets in his return. While the No. 4 overall pick in last year’s draft isn’t without fault for the Colts’ various shortcomings, the offense continues to undermine him with dropped passes, penalties and play designs that ask far too much of an inexperienced signal-caller. If the rest of the roster and coaching staff can better support him, there might be enough to build on.
Jacksonville Jaguars: An attractive setup for the next coach
The bye week came and went without a dismissal of coach Doug Pederson following the worst loss in franchise history. Still, it’s hard to envision the current regime lasting any longer than the end of this season. If owner Shad Khan parts with both Pederson and GM Trent Baalke, he could have one of the more alluring openings on the market thanks to the presence of Trevor Lawrence and a defense dotted with young talent.
Kansas City Chiefs: In-season reinforcements
Managing attrition has become one of the primary themes of the Chiefs’ three-peat bid, as Kansas City lost receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco before the offense could pursue the big-play goals it had eyed throughout the summer. But DeAndre Hopkins’ arrival ahead of the trade deadline has lifted the receiving corps, while Patrick Mahomes could get a boost in his blindside protection from free-agent signing D.J. Humphries, who could soon take over for the struggling Wanya Morris and Kingsley Suamataia. Pacheco, meanwhile, is set to play this week for the first time since suffering a fractured fibula in Week 2.
Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers
Trading away Davante Adams nearly robbed the Silver and Black of any relevance for the rest of the season. Bowers, however, has put on a show, as he trails only CeeDee Lamb in receptions (74) while nearing Sam LaPorta’s single-season record of 86 for a rookie tight end. As the likely heir to Travis Kelce and George Kittle at his position, the No. 13 overall pick is a major asset to whichever quarterback takes over for the Raiders in 2025.
Los Angeles Chargers: The NCAA and the Big Ten
Maybe Jim Harbaugh was destined for a return to the NFL, as the coach explained his decision to leave Michigan by saying “there’s no Lombardi Trophy in college football.” But given that Harbaugh said he was torn regarding the call to leave the Wolverines after winning a national championship, escaping the compliance scrutiny he faced at every turn was no doubt a significant upside to jumping back to the pros. The Chargers were ready to pounce, and Los Angeles now has a distinct identity and winning culture in place less than a year later.
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse
In allowing Saquon Barkley to rack up 255 rushing yards, the Rams reinforced they’re not up to snuff at the line of scrimmage in the early portion of the post-Aaron Donald era. That problem, however, can’t be pinned on Jared Verse, whose viral bulldozing of 6-8, 365-pound Eagles offensive tackle Jordan Mailata served as an embodiment of the jolt he has given to Los Angeles’ front seven. Already one of the league’s most reliable creators of pressure, the first-round pick out of Florida State has also been stout against the run as he puts together a campaign worthy of Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa’s return
That Tagovailoa is healthy after suffering his third documented concussion should be considered a win for all. His performance since making his way back to the field, however, has fueled hopes of an unlikely playoff run after the team’s 2-6 start. In Miami’s three-game win streak, Tagovailoa has completed 74% of his passes with eight touchdowns and one interception, rejuvenating what had been the league’s lowest-scoring offense prior to his comeback.
Minnesota Vikings: An offensive game plan beyond Justin Jefferson
Make no mistake: The Vikings’ offensive output still traces back to Jefferson. A unit that ranks ninth in scoring still hinges on having the three-time Pro Bowl receiver at the center of everything it does. But with coach Kevin O’Connell acknowledging that defenses frequently are selling out to stop Jefferson with two-high shells and tilted coverages, Minnesota is not forcing the issue, instead allowing its other skill-position players to take advantage of the opportunities afforded to them. That was evident last week, when the Chicago Bears held Jefferson to a season-low 27 yards on two catches while Jordan Addison (eight catches, 162 yards) and T.J. Hockenson (seven catches, 114 yards) feasted.
New England Patriots: $132 million in cap space
That figure – OverTheCap.com‘s current projection for 2025 – is sure to shift before the Patriots can begin their potential spending spree in March. But New England looks likely to have more cap space than any other team. And after Eliot Wolf’s first attempt to “weaponize the offense” yielded hardly any firepower, there’s a prime opportunity ahead to overhaul the woeful receiving corps and offensive line to give Drake Maye the assistance he sorely needs.
New Orleans Saints: A break from status quo
Despite not making the playoffs since the penultimate season of Sean Payton’s tenure in 2020, the Saints repeatedly doubled down on mediocrity in recent years. That bet finally went bust this season, with Dennis Allen being fired after a 2-7 start. While New Orleans might be a long shot to embrace a full roster reset and finally clear its cap bill, the franchise finally can set their aim higher than the middle of the pack.
New York Giants: A sterling rookie class
Daniel Jones muddled through his nearly six seasons as a starter quarterback in New York with little reliable help outside of Saquon Barkley. That shouldn’t be a problem for his successor, who will be equipped with two major weapons in wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Tyrone Tracy Jr., both secured in this draft class. With that same haul yielding safety Tyler Nubin, cornerback Andru Phillips and tight end Theo Johnson, the Giants have a promising collection of young talent in the fold, even if there’s a long way to go to fix the league’s lowest-scoring offense.
New York Jets: A young core to rebuild around
This was arguably the hardest entry of the list, as there are few sources of optimism for a group that has already made several drastic in-season moves to build up and later tear down this year’s team. At least an off-ramp to the Aaron Rodgers era is in sight, though whether Gang Green takes it has yet to be determined. At least with Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner and several other young players provide something of a framework for the next regime, though lofty extensions are looming.
Philadelphia Eagles: A masterful offseason of change
It’s hard to fully encapsulate how much Howie Roseman and Nick Sirianni accomplished in reconfiguring this franchise without blowing everything up. Yes, Saquon Barkley hitting the open market was a stroke of excellent luck. But hiring Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator helped bring together the third-ranked offense, while the league’s No. 1 defense has soared under Vic Fangio’s guidance. Signing linebacker Zack Baun might have been one of the biggest steals of the offseason, while rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean look like long-term staples in the secondary.
Pittsburgh Steelers: An offensive wake-up call
Kicking six field goals to beat the rival Baltimore Ravens might seem fun until the same persistent offensive problems produce a 24-19 loss to the Cleveland Browns. For as much fun as Russell Wilson’s big-play streak might have provided after his insertion into the starting lineup, this boom-or-bust approach was never going to be tenable for a team set to face the Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs and Bengals in the final four weeks of the season. Now, the Steelers can focus on fixing the red-zone woes (30th in touchdown scoring percentage) rather than just trying to power on.
San Francisco 49ers: The NFC West
Between a cascade of injuries and self-inflicted mistakes, San Francisco’s season looks beyond saving. But what’s shaping up to be the most unpredictable division race could be the greatest remaining source of hope. The defending NFC champions remain just one game back of the NFC West lead, though an upset against either the Buffalo Bills this week or the Detroit Lions in Week 17 might be necessary for San Francisco to correct its late-season trajectory.
Seattle Seahawks: Mike Macdonald’s defensive upswing
In making Macdonald the NFL’s youngest head coach, the Seahawks made clear they wanted something different from a defense that had grown stale under Pete Carroll. While it took some time for Macdonald’s complex scheme to gel, the unit has found its stride in the last three weeks, allowing just 16.3 points per game during a stretch that has launched Seattle atop the NFC West. The surge has also eased the pressure on a pass-happy offense that still seems out of sorts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Liam Coen
It’s not often that a team loses its offensive coordinator to a head-coaching vacancy and ends up in an even better spot. That’s what has happened with the Buccaneers, however, as Coen took over for Dave Canales and has orchestrated the league’s fourth-ranked scoring attack. Despite injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield is on track to set career highs in completion rate (currently 71.4%), touchdowns (24) and passer rating (104.1) thanks in large part to Coen’s creative play designs. But Tampa Bay might soon be searching for another replacement, as Coen could be a candidate for a top job himself this January.
Tennessee Titans: Correctable mistakes
Moving on from Will Levis to resolve the glaring issue of haphazard play behind center might not be so easy, as Tennessee could be just competent enough to put itself out of range of the upcoming draft’s top two quarterbacks in Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. But the Titans have also been dogged by rampant special teams stumbles, with their 578 punt return yards allowed almost 200 more than the next closest team. Brian Callahan’s staff hasn’t been able to figure out a way to clean up the problem during the season, but getting anything close to passable play in this phase could help accelerate a turnaround in Year 2.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels’ hot start
Optimism surrounding the Commanders has mirrored Daniels’ play throughout the quarterback’s rookie season, rising over the course of a blistering 7-2 start before tumbling during a three-game losing skid. Still, the No. 2 overall pick showed enough before sustaining a rib injury to make clear he’s not simply a flash in the pan, even if questions about the staying power of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense remain. The Commanders still have a solid shot at just their second playoff berth since 2016, and Daniels should be in line to make great strides once he’s equipped with more weapons in the receiving corps beyond Terry McLaurin.
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