Photo:

Sophie Shore / Eclipse Sportswire

The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic brings together runners from a vast variety of backgrounds. Top contenders include a turf superstar who has yet to try dirt, a marathon specialist shortening in distance, a slew of intriguing 3-year-olds and multiple Japan-based runners.

Speed figures are a useful tool to gauge the talent of a diverse field such as this. These numbers will not answer the question of whether City Of Troy can run on the dirt, but they will tell a story of where he rates from a class perspective.

The 127 Timeform Rating that City Of Troy earned in his latest victory in the Group 1 Juddmonte International stacks up well with major international dirt races. Señor Buscador gained a 122 Timeform Rating for his Saudi Cup (G1) win, and Ushba Tesoro earned a 123 Rating in last year’s Dubai World Cup (G1).

International racing uses Timeform Ratings, while North America uses TimeformUS figures. Timeform Ratings are not exactly the same as TimeformUS, but they are roughly on the same scale and typically can be used as a good measuring stick.

Based on TimeformUS numbers, Arthur’s Ride and Fierceness are the runners to beat as each has earned as high as 130. Beyer Speed Figures would agree, as both colts have gained the top figures. Horse Racing Nation‘s figures favor Fierceness and Next. But all three of these runners prefer to be forwardly placed, and something will have to give on race day.

According to all the different speed figures, 3-year-olds stack up well with their older counterparts this year. Arcangelo earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure for winning last year’s Travers Stakes (G1), and Fierceness garnered a 111 in this year’s edition. For race strength-comparison sake, the 109 Beyer that Sierra Leone earned in a third-place Travers effort is 5 points higher than the 104 Beyer that Highland Falls achieved in easily winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).

One will notice that the many of the best figures of the prospective favorites are only 3 to 5 points higher than runners who might be odds of 20-1 or more. With so much parity, will this be a year that chaos rules the Classic? Make your own determination with the guidance of the speed figures.

Below is a closer look at this year’s best Beyer Speed Figures, TimeformUS Figures, Timeform Ratings and HRN Speed Figures for the prospective 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic field.

Beyer Speed Figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form.