Admin November 16, 2024
NFL Week 11 picks and predictions: Why you should consider Saints and Packers on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for Sunday’s slate of games.
The fantasy football playoffs are just a few weeks away. For many managers, a win this week is a massive swing in the right way for their playoff chances. They’re likely still playing as hard as the teams near the bottom trying to avoid last place (and the subsequent punishment).
Four teams are on a bye in Week 11 of the NFL season: Tampa Bay, Carolina, Arizona, and the New York Giants. Top players on those teams could have an adverse affect on your lineup this week. If you’re struggling to make your choices, we’ve got you covered.
Here are 50 players to start or sit in Week 11:
Week 11 Fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em: QBs
START: Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Baltimore Ravens)
Wilson has made those who doubted him look foolish through three starts with the Steelers, posting a 3-0 record and averaging 245.7 yards and two touchdowns through the air per game. He has routinely connected with George Pickens on deep balls and figures to do that often against a Ravens defense that has allowed an NFL-high 3,144 yards and 21 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
START: Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Rodgers had his fourth game of the season with one or fewer touchdown passes in Week 10 against the Cardinals. He has tended to bounce back well after posting lower-end passing numbers with three games with two touchdowns following a one-touchdown performance this season.
Rodgers is also playing a Colts defense that has surrendered the fifth-most passing yards to quarterbacks this season.
START: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Herbert is heating up with 241.7 passing yards and 27.7 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks with two touchdowns in each game . The Bengals have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and have allowed a league-high 336 rushing yards to the position. Herbert’s rushing floor should make him a threat to be a top-10 quarterback this week, making him a great streamer.
START: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (at Dallas Cowboys)
Stroud has struggled over his last four games but the second-year quarterback’s top receiver, Nico Collins, is expected to return in Week 11 after a five-game absence.
In four full games with Collins, Stroud averaged 263.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. The Cowboys have allowed four of the last five quarterbacks they have faced to throw multiple touchdowns against them, so this should be the spot in which Stroud finally breaks out of his month-long slump.
SIT: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
Love had a week off to rest his ailing groin, but he draws a difficult matchup in his return to the field. The Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year and have only allowed six passing touchdowns. Love has the talent needed to buck that trend, but it’s hard to recommend trusting him this week between his uncertain health and penchant for interceptions.
SIT: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (at Tennessee Titans)
Darnold is coming off his worst performance as the Vikings’ starting quarterback. He failed to record a touchdown against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last week. He also tossed a season-high three interceptions in the contest, bringing his total from his last two outings to five.
Until Darnold shows better form, it will probably be best to leave him on the bench, especially against a Titans defense that has been solid against opposing quarterbacks (16th in fantasy points allowed to the position).
SIT: Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (at Denver Broncos)
Impressively, the Broncos have only allowed teams to throw multiple touchdowns against them in two of their ten games this season. Granted, those two performances came in Weeks 8 and 9, respectively, but Denver returned to form by limiting Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10.
Cousins has only recorded multiple passing touchdowns in four of his ten starts this season. That puts him at a high risk of busting during this difficult matchup.
SIT: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)
The Bears made changes to the offensive staff this week but it likely won’t make a huge difference in the first game against Green Bay. The Packers are fresh off a bye after limiting Jared Goff to just 145 yards and one touchdown. Green Bay is second only to Minnesota in the percentage of opponent drives that end in a turnover (18.4%). That doesn’t spell a good week for Williams, even at home.
Week 11 Fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em: RBs
START: Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (at Tennessee Titans)
Jones was carted off against Jacksonville last week but returned to the game and finished with 101 total yards on 19 touches. It’s been three weeks since he last scored a touchdown.
Enter the Titans defense. Tennessee has allowed eight total touchdowns to running backs in the last four weeks. They’ve kept most running games in check yardage-wise but have allowed plenty of trips to the end zone. Jones should have a solid game where the Vikings’ defense could shine and lean the game script to a more run-heavy approach.
START: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (vs. New England Patriots)
Williams has gone scoreless in his last two games after scoring at least one touchdown per week through Week 8. But he’s facing a Patriots defense this week that has allowed at least 120 total yards to opposing running backs in seven of their last eight games. Running backs have also scored nine touchdowns in that span.
START: David Montgomery, Detroit Lions (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Montgomery had his second-lowest yardage total of the season (56) against the Texans in Week 10. But in Week 11, he’ll face a Jaguars defense that has been one of the more porous run defenses in recent weeks. Jacksonville’s allowed 173 total yards per game and four touchdowns to opposing running backs over the last three weeks.
START: Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (at Buffalo Bills)
Hunt had a season-low 35 rushing yards in the win over Denver in Week 10. He had much better luck in the passing game, where he had seven catches for 65 yards, both season-highs. Those totals could flip this week against the Bills.
Buffalo has allowed 181 yards per game and three touchdowns to opposing running backs in the last two games. That yardage total comes at 5.6 yards per touch, so there’s consistently been opportunity on a snap-by-snap basis. The Chiefs could lean into the run game more against the Bills, and Hunt should reap the benefits.
START: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (at New Orleans Saints)
Cleveland returns from the bye against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. New Orleans hasn’t allowed huge yardage totals recently – 164.2 yards per game over their last five matchups – but has given up lots of touchdowns. Opposing running backs have scored 10 touchdowns in that span. Chubb has just one touchdown this season, which will likely change this week.
SIT: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (at Los Angeles Chargers)
Brown had a solid 104 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown last week but he faces another tough unit in Week 11. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a running back to score since September. The Chargers have allowed top running backs to put up good yardage totals, including Alvin Kamara’s 112 in Week 8 and Conner’s 152 in Week 7, but they keep them out of the end zone. Brown may be in for a similar fate this week.
SIT: Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Houston Texans)
Dowdle faces a tough run defense once again this week against the Texans. Houston held Detroit to a season-low 105 rushing yards, and the Lions’ offense is in a much better place than Dallas’s unit. Dowdle had 54 of the Cowboys’ 146 total yards on offense against the Eagles last week, and things likely won’t get better this week.
SIT: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
Harris could be in for a tough week. Jaylen Warren was better on a per-carry basis against Washington last week, with 16 total touches. The Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL and just gave up 421 passing yards to the Bengals last week. Pittsburgh is much better served attacking them in the air instead of the ground, which could tip more production in Warren’s favor.
SIT: Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (at Detroit Lions)
Tank Bigsby left the game early against Minnesota last week, giving Etienne the opportunity to be the lead back against the Vikings. With that opportunity, Etienne Jr. managed just 44 yards on 11 carries and could struggle again this week against the Lions. Detroit is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game this season and could jump out to a big lead early, forcing Jacksonville to pass to keep up.
SIT: Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons (at Denver Broncos)
Allgeier had a subpar day while teammate Bijan Robinson ran wild over the Saints in Week 10. Allgeier could be in for a repeat this week. Denver’s seventh in fewest rushing yards allowed per game this season. The most successful running backs against the Broncos often are players who are pass-catching threats or Derrick Henry. Robinson’s handled the receiving role out of the backfield, leaving Allgeier in a tough situation this week.
Week 11 Fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em: WRs
START: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
In the three games since Russell Wilson has taken over at quarterback, Pickens has 276 yards and two touchdowns on 14 catches. This week, he’ll face a Ravens defense that’s allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers in the last four weeks, including a 264-yard, three-touchdown day from Ja’Marr Chase of the Bengals.
START: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Sutton should be considered a weekly start at this point in the season. Quarterback Bo Nix relies on Sutton far more than any other pass-catcher in the Broncos’ offense. This week, the tandem faces a Falcons defense that has struggled to shut down opposing wide receivers this year – Marquez Valdes-Scantling put up 109 yards and two touchdowns on three catches in Week 10.
START: Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
Ridley was a “sit” candidate last week because of the struggles he had previously dealt with when Will Levis started under center. However, concerns about the young quarterback and his connection with his top receiver were put aside after an 84-yard, two-touchdown performance against a strong Chargers secondary. This week, things get easier against the Vikings, who have allowed the third-most points by receivers in fantasy football this year.
START: Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns (at New Orleans Saints)
Tillman got hot ahead of the Browns’ bye with an average of seven catches for 85 yards per game and three total touchdowns from Weeks 7-9. With a week off and coming back against a Saints team allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game in the NFL, it’s a good matchup. Even though New Orleans snapped a losing streak last week against Atlanta, the Falcons’ wide receivers still totaled 16 catches for 223 yards.
SIT: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (at New York Jets)
Pittman may not play in Week 11 after he missed the Colts’ Week 10 game dealing with a back injury. If he does return, there is very little upside for the veteran receiver. He’ll be banged up at best and facing a Jets defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wideouts this year.
SIT: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (at Miami Dolphins)
It’s tempting to go with Meyers with a potential boost off the bye due to the coaching staff shakeup on offense. Maybe couch that for another couple of weeks to see. Miami’s eighth in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed and just held the Los Angeles Rams out of the end zone in prime time on the road. The Raiders’ offense isn’t nearly as dangerous and Meyers could be in for a long day.
SIT: D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Moore’s production has fallen off a cliff since his “revenge game” against his former team, the Carolina Panthers, in Week 5. Since then, the 27-year-old hasn’t caught more than four passes, tallied more than 35 yards, or seen the end zone. There’s no reason to believe better days will come against a Packers secondary that allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers over the last four weeks.
SIT: Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (at Tennessee Titans)
Any fantasy football players hoping that Addison’s solid day on “Sunday Night Football” last week was the sign of a comeback were disappointed in Week 10. That Week 9 matchup with the Colts remains the second-year wideout’s only game this year with more than three catches, and he still has yet to surpass his yardage total from his 72-yard outing in Week 4 against the Packers. The Titans have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers all season and the seventh-fewest in the last two weeks.
Week 11 Fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em: TEs
START: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (vs. Chicago Bears)
Jordan Love has battled a knee injury and groin injury, but he should be healthier coming out of the Packers bye. Green Bay’s passing should rebound. Kraft is one of the players who benefited during healthy stretches for Love this season with standout performances in Week 4 and Week 5.
The Bears’ defense doesn’t allow much production to tight ends, but since losing safety Jaquan Brisker, they have struggled to slow down the position. In the last four games, Chicago has allowed 22, 17, 11, and 11 PPR fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Start Kraft without hesitation in Week 11.
START: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
The New England Patriots will meet the Los Angeles Rams at home in Week 11. The veteran tight end has been a solid streaming option this season and a yo-yo start/sit each week. Patriots No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye continues to improve each week, and you can safely and confidently insert Henry back into lineups this Sunday against the Rams.
Henry is New England’s leading receiver and has run the most routes for the team this season. The Rams have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Henry is coming off a down game, but a bounce back is coming as he racked up 13, 17 and 12 points in Maye’s previous three healthy starts. Start Henry this week.
START: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Denver Broncos)
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts has been heavily featured as a start this season. He posted a decent bounce back with 4 receptions on 6 targets for 55 yards after his one catch, 11-yard showing in Week 9. He currently ranks as the sixth overall scoring tight end, and you should not be questioning whether or not to start him.
Before his Week 9 dud, Pitts finished with double-digit fantasy points in four straight. The Falcons will be on the road against a tough Broncos defense, but Pitts will benefit from Patrick Surtain being matched up with Drake London on the outside. Denver allows opposing teams to funnel throws over the middle of the field and, as a result, has allowed the fifth-most receptions to opposing tight ends. Pitts could be in for a rare high-volume day.
SIT: Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
The last time Mike Gesicki was mentioned, he was a recommended start, and he went for a career day with 100 yards and two touchdowns. The Bengals host the Chargers on “Sunday Night Football,” and wide receiver Tee Higgins could return after a three-week absence. Assuming Higgins is back, Gesicki should remain on benches. With the Bengals playing at the end of the day, the risk is too high if you have Gesicki in your lineup, and we learn Higgins is playing.
Gesicki becomes a top DFS play this week if Higgins remains out but in the five games Higgins was healthy, Gesicki posted (8, 1, 5, 0, and 1) PPR fantasy points. The Chargers defense has been phenomenal. Leave Big Mike on the sideline this Sunday.
SIT: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Detroit Lions)
Engram didn’t lose much of the target share with Trevor Lawrence out of the lineup in Week 10. He had six catches for 40 yards, in line with his averages from the prior few weeks. But the Lions are allowing the fewest points to opposing tight ends in the NFL this season. A tight end hasn’t caught a touchdown on Detroit’s defense since Week 4. Avoid Engram if possible this week.
SIT: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Houston Texans)
Ferguson had his worst game of the season last week against Philadelphia with 24 yards on four catches and a lost fumble. He and the rest of the Cowboys’ passing offense will likely struggle again this week in prime time. Houston is allowing just 24.7 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season. With Cooper Rush under center, Ferguson likely won’t be the one to go against the average.
Week 11 Fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em: Ks
START: Jake Moody, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Moody is coming off a three-miss game, so it’s easy to understand why some fantasy owners would be reluctant to trust him in Week 11. That said, the 49ers average a league-high 3.2 field goal attempts per game, so Moody should continue to get a high volume of chances to split the uprights. With better accuracy against the Seahawks, he could end up being a top-five fantasy kicker.
START: Brandon McManus, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
The Bears have a very strong pass defense, so it shouldn’t be surprising that they surrender plenty of field goal attempts. They allow an average of 2.7 per game and a whopping 11 attempts over their last three contests (3.7 per game). McManus hasn’t yet attempted a kick from 50-plus yards but is 6-of-7 on his field goal attempts, with a lone miss coming from 40-plus yards in rain-soaked Green Bay. He should have a solid chance to post double-digit points if Chicago continues to play a bend-don’t-break style of defense.
START: Daniel Carlson, Las Vegas Raiders (at Miami Dolphins)
Trusting Carlson is risky, as he has only made multiple field goals in four of his nine games this season. However, he gets a good matchup against a Dolphins team, allowing a league-high 2.9 field goal attempts per game, and has made 4-of-5 attempts from 50-plus yards this year. Carlson also has two games with at least four field goals made, so his ceiling is high in a good-looking matchup.
START: Wil Lutz, Denver Broncos (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Yes, the Broncos are fresh off a loss that came down to a blocked field goal but Lutz may be playing the ideal team for a bounce-back. Atlanta is one of two teams in the NFL to allow a 100% rate on field goals; Houston is the other but the Falcons have allowed 24 to the Texans’ 13. Lutz’s shot at redemption could be on the table against Atlanta at home.
SIT: Younghoe Koo, Atlanta Falcons (at Denver Broncos)
Typically, starting kickers at altitude in Denver is favorable, as it gives their kicks a little extra distance. However, the Broncos allow just 1.8 field goals per game this season, the eighth-fewest in the NFL, and Koo is just 2-of-7 on field goal attempts over his last three games. The 30-year-old veteran may be able to bounce back after a rough stretch, but it’s hard to trust his current form in a spot where his opportunities may be limited.
SIT: Tyler Bass, Buffalo Bills (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
Bass appears to be rounding into form after a rocky start to the season. He has made three field goals in back-to-back games, including four attempts from 40-plus yards. Still, trusting Bass against a Chiefs defense that allows just 1.9 field goal attempts per game (tied for the 10th-fewest in the NFL) seems like a risk. Besides, Sean McDermott might be more aggressive going for it in this contest as the Bills look to hand Kansas City its first loss of the season. That could cut down Bass’ opportunities.
SIT: Cairo Santos, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)
As stated earlier, Chicago may need more time for a bounce-back on offense following the staffing changes. But the bigger issue this week for Santos is that the Packers have allowed just 13 field goal attempts this season, tied for the second-fewest. They’re tied for 12th in extra points allowed, though, meaning that’s more likely where Santos could get his opportunity if the Bears reach the red zone.
SIT: Nick Folk, Tennessee Titans (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
If you’re looking for a kicker in a pinch, avoid Folk if you can. He’s gone 3 for 4 on field goals and 4 for 4 on extra points the last two weeks combined but is going against the toughest team for kickers this week. Minnesota has given up just 11 field goal attempts this season. With how the Vikings defense is playing, Tennessee may not get that many chances to score in the first place.
Week 11 Fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em: D/STs
START: Detroit Lions (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
At this point in the season, you have to take the layups. The Jaguars are a bad team. The Lions are a good team. The Jaguars are starting Mac Jones. That pretty much tells the entire story. Detroit boasts a top-10 fantasy defense and their newest pass-rusher, Za’Darius Smith, could make his debut. Don’t overthink it.
START: Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
Green Bay should ultimately walk away with another win to stretch their winning streak over Chicago to 11, but they’ll look to continue another trend for their rivals. The Bears haven’t scored a touchdown in two games. Roschon Johnson’s fourth quarter touchdown run against the Commanders is the last time they found pay dirt.
It’s doubtful that the Bears improve dramatically in a short amount of time, especially since Caleb Williams’ struggles are the biggest reason for Waldron’s dismissal. This is a mismatch both in real life and fantasy.
START: Minnesota Vikings (at Tennessee Titans)
Will Levis is back and fantasy managers must be salivating at this matchup. The Vikings own the top fantasy defense and Levis has consistently committed some of the most mind-numbing turnovers on a weekly basis. While that wasn’t the case in Week 10, there is always a chance for the Titans to help their opponent’s defense turn in a great fantasy score. Trust Minnesota’s top fantasy unit and live with the results against one of the NFL’s bottom-feeders.
START: Miami Dolphins (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
The Dolphins got their mojo back in Hollywood with a big win over the Rams. While Matthew Stafford and the L.A. offensive line are to thank for most of that, there’s no reason to believe Miami can’t do it again at home. They’re facing the lowly Raiders off a bye and are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Vegas fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and will now debut Scott Turner as the OC on Sunday. Regardless, the lack of talent is still present and it doesn’t matter whether they opt to start Gardner Minshew or Desmond Ridder. The Raiders are a team to target and that makes the Dolphins a streaming candidate in Week 11.
START: San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Don’t look now but the 49ers defense is steadily improving over their last four games. San Francisco’s allowed 298 yards and 24 points per game in that span but crucially totaled seven sacks and seven turnovers. Seattle returns from their bye this week and will have DK Metcalf back in the lineup but San Francisco is still a good play.
SIT: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
The Steelers were solid against the Commanders, but did give up 27 points. Three sacks and a fumble saved the day for Pittsburgh’s fantasy score, but the Ravens high-powered offense is rested and healthy heading into Week 11.
With no shortage of weapons to defend, this is easily the toughest task for the Steelers in 2024. Mike Tomlin has some good history against the Ravens as of late, but his defense should remain on the bench if you can.
SIT: Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
From one Harbaugh to another, Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are looking to continue a surprisingly successful season under the lights on “Sunday Night Football.” The Bolts are the top scoring defense in the league but there’s some reason for concern. Los Angeles is feasting on lesser opponents and may not have the same success this week. The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives and bring a red-hot offense to Los Angeles.
SIT: Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Chicago’s bad offense makes their defense one to avoid as well. While the unit has been respectable thus far, an offense that can’t score points is going to put a strain on a defense’s ability to hold up. The Packers season has felt somewhat cursed ever since Jordan Love’s injury in Week 1, but a matchup with the Bears is always a good way to right the ship. History says you want to be on Green Bay’s side.
SIT: New York Jets (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
It’s tempting, but don’t do it. The Colts admitted defeat on the Joe Flacco experiment and are handing the keys back to Anthony Richardson. Indianapolis’ second-year quarterback has struggled to throw the ball, which happens to be important for someone playing that position. It remains to be seen whether his two weeks on the sideline changes anything. However, the Jets have seemingly quit on the season and their defense essentially indicated that against the Cardinals in Week 10. It’s hard to believe things have gone this far south for New York, but “Gang Green” is always finding a new rock bottom.
SIT: Jacksonville Jaguars (at Detroit Lions)
Again, another way to go against Jacksonville on the road this week. We don’t expect Jared Goff to throw five interceptions once again and the Jaguars’ front isn’t nearly as scary as Houston’s unit. Jacksonville did have a good performance last week against the Vikings but again, it’s hard to imagine they’ll get another three interceptions against a Lions team that will likely lean on the ground.