College Football Playoff predictions: Projecting who would make 12-team field after Week 11

Admin November 11, 2024

Saturday’s college football action featured upsets and wins that will shake up the College Football Playoff field ahead of its second rankings release.

Ahead of Tuesday’s second College Football Playoff rankings, a pair of top-five ranked teams lost, while a couple of top-10 teams survived close calls. If the US LBM Coaches Poll for Week 12 is an indicator, there could be massive movement in the rankings, impacting the teams’ bids for the newly expanded 12-team field.

No. 2 Georgia suffered its second loss of the season at the hands of No. 12 Ole Miss, which had entered the week with two losses. No. 4 Miami was upended by ACC foe Georgia Tech, ending the Hurricanes’ bid for a perfect season. In near upsets, No. 9 BYU and No. 10 Indiana each survived one-score matchups.

Alabama, the highest-ranked two-loss team entering Week 11 at No. 11, knocked off No. 13 LSU to hand the Tigers their third loss and eliminate them from contention. Losses by No. 18 Iowa State and No. 22 Pitt also dashed their hopes for a berth.

Here’s the latest CFP predictions after Week 11 of the college football season:

College Football Playoff predictions after Week 11

Seedings are based on this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll and rules of the College Football Playoff format:

Oregon*
Texas*
BYU*
Miami*
Ohio State
Tennessee
Penn State
Indiana
Notre Dame
Alabama
Georgia
Boise State**

*Receives first-round bye, automatic bid

**Receives automatic bid

Following Georgia’s loss, the Bulldogs drop out of the top four and potentially lose a first-round bye. Texas, which lost to Georgia on Oct. 19, is now in the driver’s seat to claim the SEC’s automatic bid. Despite their win over the Bulldogs, the Rebels are just outside the playoff field due to how the rankings sit.

Oregon remains one of four unbeaten teams, while Miami remains in the top four despite a loss because it is the best team in the ACC. Boise State remains in a good spot to secure the No. 12 seed as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.

Ohio State’s win over Purdue ensured it remained in the No. 5 position. Despite Alabama’s road blowout over LSU, the Crimson Tide only rose one spot in the projections due to its two losses. The Bulldogs fall to No. 11 and still have a great shot at making the field.

Projected CFP bracket after Week 10

Here’s what the first-round matchups would be like if the 2024 college football season were to end today:

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Georgia
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Alabama
No. 8 Indiana vs. No. 9 Notre Dame

Interestingly, No. 6 Tennessee is scheduled to play No. 11 Georgia in Athens, Georgia, this week, ensuring one of these teams could fall out of the rankings or rise further with a win.

From there, the winner of Ohio State-Boise State would play No. 4 Miami in the quarterfinals, while the winner of Georgia-Tennessee would face No. 3 BYU. No. 2 Texas would play the winner of Penn State-Alabama and No. 1 overall seed Oregon would take on the winner of No. 8 Indiana and No. 9 Notre Dame.

College Football Playoff dates, schedule

The College Football Playoff will kick off with first-round games between Friday, Dec. 20, and Saturday, Dec. 21. This year’s national championship is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 20, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Here is a complete list of dates for the College Football Playoff:

First round: Friday, Dec. 20-Saturday, Dec. 21
Quarterfinals: Tuesday, Dec. 31-Wednesday, Jan. 1
Semifinals: Thursday, Jan. 9-Friday, Jan. 10
National Championship: Monday, Jan. 20

College Football Playoff ranking dates

The second of the six College Football Playoff rankings will air on ESPN on Tuesday, Nov. 12, at 8:30 p.m. ET. The second rankings will be revealed between college basketball games in the Champions Classic.

Here is a list of full dates for the release of College Football Playoff rankings:

All times Eastern