Tennessee dropped from No. 8 in ESPN’s College Football Playoff Top 12 projection last week to No. 12 on Saturday night, with the Vols waiting out their second by week of the season. 

The top four seeds were No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Ohio State. 

After that it was No. 5 Texas ahead of No. 6 Texas A&M, No. 7 Miami, No. 8 BYU, No. 9 Indiana, No. 10 Boise State, No. 11 Clemson and then the Vols. 

ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote Saturday night that if Tennessee finishes 10-2, the Vols will need some help to get into the playoff. 

“ESPN Analytics gives Tennessee more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games — except Nov. 16 at Georgia,” Dinich wrote. “If the Vols finish as a two-loss team, they will be heavily dependent on that win against Alabama to impress the selection committee enough for an at-large spot.”

Dinich wrote that Tennessee’s wins over NC State and Oklahoma won’t count for much, with both teams already sitting on four losses. The 24-17 win over Alabama last week was aided by Alabama’s 34-0 win over Missouri on Saturday. Arkansas, which beat the Vols 19-14 in Fayetteville on October 5, won 58-25 at Mississippi State on Saturday. 

No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) hosts Kentucky (3-5, 1-5) on Saturday night (7:45 Eastern Time, SEC Network) at Neyland Stadium. The Vols are home on November 9, too, with Mississippi State coming to Knoxville.

The regular-season schedule closes with road games at Georgia, home against UTEP and at Vanderbilt on November 30.

“A road win in the regular-season finale against Vanderbilt is no longer a gimme,” Dinich wrote, “and the committee would recognize that as a more respectable win than in years past. 

“Still, a two-loss Tennessee’s fate would depend on how the Vols play, how their opponents finish, and how many other two-loss contenders are in the mix.”

Both of ESPN’s bowl projections had Tennessee on the outside looking in at the 12-team playoff. 

ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura had Tennessee going back to the Citrus Bowl for a second straight season, facing Illinois this time around. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach had Tennessee in the Gator Bowl against Virginia Tech.

“Even in its best win (against Alabama),” Dinich wrote, “Tennessee has shown vulnerabilities, particularly on offense and with turnovers and penalties against the Tide. The Vols also needed overtime to beat an average-at-best Florida team.”