Team outlooks for USA TODAY Sports men’s college basketball preseason Top 25

Team outlooks for USA TODAY Sports men’s college basketball preseason Top 25

October 23, 2024

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The preseason men’s basketball poll is out after the 31 coaches on the voting panel submitted their ballots. The ranking is dominated by teams from the Power Four conferences and has traditional powerhouse programs occupying most of the top positions.

Like previous seasons since the advent of the transfer portal, there has been a tremendous amount of roster turnover with players in new places, and it may be be hard to get up to speed on what these teams look like. That’s why we’re here to help with our annual outlook for every team in the USA TODAY Sports preseason men’s basketball coaches poll.

1. Kansas (23-11)

Points: 743 (15 first-place votes). Last year’s final ranking: 21.

Entering the campaign with the highest ranking didn’t work out so well for the Jayhawks a season ago. But there’s a lot of production back in Lawrence, and coach Bill Self and his staff hope the depth issues that led to KU’s atypical second-round NCAA tournament exit have been addressed. The returning nucleus of center Hunter Dickinson (18.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg), forward KJ Adams (17.9 ppg, 10.9 rpg) and guard Dajuan Harris (9.0 ppg) will be joined by reinforcements from the portal. Those include sharpshooter Rylan Griffen from Alabama and swingman AJ Storr from Wisconsin.

2. Alabama (25-12)

Points: 718 (6 first-place votes). Last year’s final ranking: 4.

The program’s first Final Four squad returns a number of experienced hands, as well as an infusion of new talent that could lead to the ultimate prize. The cornerstone will again be high-scoring guard Mark Sears (21.5 ppg), a national player of the year candidate. Also back in Tuscaloosa will be forward Grant Nelson (11.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and guard Latrell Wrightsell (8.9 ppg). A pair of highly-rated freshmen, Aiden Sherrell and Derrion Reid, add even more depth to the interior.

3. Connecticut (37-3)

Points: 717 (6 first-place votes). Last year’s final ranking: 1.

The two-time defending champion Huskies once again needed a roster overhaul with four starters gone, but Dan Hurley’s track record in team construction speaks for itself. Building around Alex Karaban (13.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg), a starter on both national title squads, is a good beginning point. Guard Hassan Diarra and center Samson Johnson, key reserves last year, should see their minutes increase. Newcomers include touted freshman Liam McNeeley and Saint Mary’s transfer Aidan Mahaney.

4. Houston (32-5)

Points: 698 (4 first-place votes). Last year’s final ranking: 3.

The Cougars’ first season in the Big 12 was a success, though they ran into some tough injury luck in March bowing out to Duke in the Sweet 16. Standout guard Jamal Shead is gone, but a pair of double-digit scorers are back, and Kelvin Sampson’s group will still play a tough brand of defense. L.J. Cryer (15.5 ppg) and Emanuel Sharp (12.6) are the top returnees in the backcourt, and numerous role players who saw significant minutes figure to contribute more.

5. Duke (27-9)

Points: 625. Last year’s final ranking: 9.

The recruiting train keeps rolling in Durham, North Carolina, as the Blue Devils, fresh off a trip to the Elite Eight, welcome the next future No.-1 draft pick candidate to town. Cooper Flagg is a 6-9 talent who can do it all at both ends of the floor. He won’t have to carry the team himself, however, as the Blue Devils also have guard Tyrese Proctor (10.5 ppg, 3.7 apg) back and also pick up experienced Purdue transfer Mason Gillis to help facilitate. The freshman class also includes 6-7 wingman Isaiah Evans and 7-1 center Khaman Maluach, who was part of the South Sudan Olympic team that became an international sensation in Paris.

6. Iowa State (29-8)

Points: 591. Last year’s final ranking: 8.

The Cyclones more than held their own in the hyper-competitive Big 12 mounting a Sweet 16 campaign. They won’t surprise anyone this year, but a veteran lineup should be ready for lofty expectations. The leaders will again be guard Keshon Gilbert (13.7 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Tamin Lipsey (12.4 ppg, 4.9 apg). Another player to watch is sophomore forward Milan Momcilovic (10.9 ppg), who will now be the veteran in a largely new-look frontcourt.

7. Gonzaga (27-8)

Points: 575. Last year’s final ranking: 16.

Despite having what was perceived to be a down year for the perennial West Coast Conference power, the Bulldogs kept their string of Sweet 16 appearances intact. A lot of experienced parts are back for Mark Few’s squad, led by the inside-out tandem of Graham Ike (16.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg) and Ryan Nembhard (12.6 ppg, 6.9 apg). Shooting guard Nolan Hickman (14.0 ppg), a 41.3% marksman from three-point range, and forward Ben Gregg, a key reserve last season, also return. They’ll be joined by Michael Ajayi, who averaged 17.9 points and 9.9 boards at Pepperdine last year and could help replace the production of Boston Celtics’ draftee Anton Watson.

8. Baylor (24-11)

Points: 545. Last year’s final ranking: 14.

Last year’s second-round departure was early by recent program standards, but Scott Drew’s Bears should again be in the upper tier of the crowded Big 12. One reason for optimism is the arrival of VJ Edgecombe, a likely one-year collegian who could put up big numbers. The two key returnees, double-digit scorers Langston Love and Jayden Nunn, will also be joined by a couple of transfers from ACC territory, Point guard Jeremy Roach from Duke and big man Norchad Omier from Miami.

9. Arizona (27-9)

Points: 510. Last year’s final ranking: 12.

After a last ride in the Pac-12 ended in the round of 16, the Wildcats now make the loaded Big 12 even more of a nightly challenge. Prolific shooter Caleb Love (18.0 ppg) is back for his final year in Tucson. The rest of the starting lineup will look different, but seven-footer Motiejus Krivas should step into the middle and Jaden Bradley will join Love in the backcourt. A loaded transfer class includes Trey Townsend, the leader of that Oakland team that sent Kentucky packing last March.

10. North Carolina (29-8)

Points: 498. Last year’s final ranking: 6.

A No.-1 regional seed didn’t mean a free pass to the Final Four last March as the Tar Heels ran into a red-hot Alabama squad. But they should again be in the mix in the ACC with one of the nation’s most accomplished guard groups. RJ Davis (21.2 ppg) should again provide the scoring punch with Elliot Cadeau expected to be more comfortable in his second year running point. Seth Trimble is another experienced perimeter scorer, but there’s a gaping hole in UNC’s interior with long-time mainstay Armando Bacot off to the next level.

11. Auburn (27-8)

Points: 465. Last year’s final ranking: 17.

Point guard duties will go to Furman transfer JP Pegues (18.4 ppg), potentially one of the most impactful offseason additions in the SEC. Auburn will continue to look to reigning All-America forward Johni Broome (16.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg) to do the heavy lifting in terms of scoring and rim protection. In terms of offensive production, Broome will be helped by the addition of Georgia Tech guard Miles Kelly (13.9 ppg), a two-year starter for the Yellow Jackets.

12. Tennessee (27-9)

Points: 437. Last year’s final ranking: 5.

After a bit of a breakthrough under coach Rick Barnes, the Volunteers will look to advance deeper into the tournament without star forward Dalton Knecht. While holdovers such as senior guard Zakai Zeigler (11.8 ppg, 6.1 apg) will help replace that lost production, Tennessee is also banking on an immediate boost from North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier (19.7 ppg) and Hofstra transfer Darlinstone Dubar (17.8 ppg).

13. Purdue (34-5)

Points: 390. Last year’s final ranking: 2.

There are some big changes underway for Purdue, with emphasis on big: Zach Edey is gone after putting together one of the most decorated careers in college basketball history. But the cupboard isn’t bare. The Boilermakers have an extremely experienced backcourt duo of Fletcher Loyer (10.6 ppg) and Braden Smith (12.2 ppg) and are banking on a big step forward from junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn.

14. Creighton (25-10)

Points: 342. Last year’s final ranking: 10.

Creighton will build around likely All-America center Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.3 ppg, 3.1 bpg) and senior guard Steven Ashworth (11.1 ppg) without last year’s two leading scorers, including all-conference forward Baylor Scheierman. After finishing second in the Big East last season, the Bluejays will look to dethrone UConn with help from high-profile transfers Pop Isaac (15.8 ppg) from Texas Tech and Jamiya Neal (11 ppg, 5.4 rpg) from Arizona State.

15. Texas A&M (21-15)

Points: 332. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

Texas A&M and coach Buzz Williams return the most experienced roster in the SEC and one of the most veteran groups across the entire major-conference landscape. That group of returning players includes guard Wade Taylor IV (19.1 ppg) and forward Henry Coleman (8.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg). Joining an established rotation are some plug-and-play transfers in former SMU guard Zhuric Phelps (14.8 ppg) and former Minnesota forward Pharrel Payne (10 ppg, 6.1 rpg) as well as a solid bench addition in former Nebraska sixth man C.J. Wilcher.

16. Arkansas (16-17)

Points: 272. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

The biggest coaching change of the offseason brought John Calipari to Arkansas after his long run at Kentucky. Calipari inherits a team that missed last year’s tournament in the Razorbacks’ first losing finish since 2009-10. Help is on the way via former Kentucky guard D.J. Wagner (9.9 ppg) and former Florida Atlantic guard and tournament veteran Johnell Davis (18.2 ppg). Calipari also added former Kentucky center Zvonimir Ivišić and added three recruits who were originally committed to the Wildcats.

17. Marquette (27-10)

Points: 268. Last year’s final ranking: 11.

With Tyler Kolek no longer around, the major focus of Marquette’s offense will be senior guard Kam Jones (17.2 ppg). Jones is one of several key cogs behind last year’s Sweet 16 run, along with fellow guard Stevie Mitchell (8.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and forward David Joplin (10.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg). Look for Joplin’s numbers to improve as he moves from sixth-man duties into the starting lineup. How far the Golden Eagles go may depend on the development of a highly recruited crop of redshirt and true freshmen. There are enough bodies at Shaka Smart’s disposal that Marquette did not any players in the transfer portal.

18. Indiana (19-14)

Points: 208. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

The Hoosiers missed the tournament for the first time in three seasons under Mike Woodson, but looked poised to have a nice blend of holdovers and transfers that can get them back in the field. Malik  Reneau (15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Mackenzie Mgbako (12.2 ppg) are back in the frontcourt with support from center Oumar Ballo arriving from Arizona. The backcourt will rely on Trey Galloway (10.6) being aided by former Pac-12 players Myles Rice (Washington State) and Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford).

19. Texas (21-13)

Points: 166. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

With several key pieces gone from last season, Rodney Terry hit the portal to reload. Jordan Pope (Oregon State), Tramon Mark (Arkansas), Jayson Kent (Indiana State) and Arthur Kaluma (Kansas State) all were productive players for their respective schools. Incoming freshman Tre Johnson should have an immediate impact for the backcourt. How quickly Terry can get the talent to blend will be important as the Longhorns hope to make a run in their first season in the SEC.

20. Cincinnati (22-15)

Points: 163. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

It’s taken time for Wes Miller to build the Bearcats into a tournament team. In his fourth season, they look to be in good shape to make the field for the first time since 2019. Dan Skillings Jr. and Simas Lukosius were double-digit scorers for last season’s team. Day Day Lewis and Jizzle James provide depth and experience at point guard. The frontcourt will have help from Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell, who was a top recruit and could be ready for a breakout season.

21. Florida (24-12)

Points: 130. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

The high hopes for the Gators start with Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 ppg), a preseason first-team all-SEC pick, and Will Richard both returning to the backcourt after exploring the possibility of entering the NBA draft. Optimism is high that sophomore center Alex Condon will blossom into a force, giving Florida a potent inside threat. Clayton and Richard should get some scoring help from Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin, who helped the Owls reach the Final Four in 2023.

22. UCLA (16-17)

Points: 123. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

Last year was an anomaly for Mick Cronin as the coach missed the tournament for the first time since 2010. The Bruins were hurt by personnel losses and injuries and ended up with a losing record. The outlook is better this. Dylan Andrews and Sebastian Mack return in the backcourt. Portal additions Kobe Johnson (Southern California), Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon State) and William Kyle III (South Dakota State) and some talented freshmen make this a deep roster that should be able to handle the transition and travel challenges of UCLA’s first season in the Big Ten.

23. Kentucky (23-10)

Points: 95. Last year’s final ranking: 19.

The Wildcats will have a new look without John Calipari roaming the sidelines after 15 seasons and some recent tournament disappointments. Former Kentucky player Mark Pope takes over after his five-year stint at Brigham Young and brings with him transfer Jaxson Robinson. Pope, however, won’t have any scholarship players from last year’s Wildcats after the program had a complete overhaul. Among the other key additions are Andrew Carr (Wake Forest), Lamont Butler (San Diego State) Koby Brea (Dayton) and coveted in-state recruits Trent Noah and Travis Perry.

24. Illinois (29-9)

Points: 87. Last year’s final ranking: 7.

There’s major turnover for the Fighting Illini with the loss of Terrence Shannon, who led the team to the Elite Eight last year, and host of departures to the transfer portal. But Brad Underwood has been here before and found success in bringing in impact players. The backcourt added Kylan Boswell (Arizona) and Tre White (Louisville). Ty Rodgers is a veteran holdover in the frontcourt. There is also a standout freshman class that features Morez Johnson and Will Riley – both rated among the top domestic players, They’re joined by international additions Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivišić.

25. Mississippi (20-12)

Points: 66. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

Chris Beard didn’t make the tournament in his first season with the Rebels, but the showed improvement winning their 13 first games and joining the Top 25 before a tough second half. Now, Ole Miss makes the preseason poll for the first time. The optimism comes from a veteran roster assembled with 10 seniors. Seton Hall transfer Dre Davis is among the newcomers bringing versatility and last year’s leading scorer Matthew Murrell returns to the backcourt.