Admin October 3, 2024
NFL Week 5 picks: Why you should consider Vikings, Saints and Ravens
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for NFL Week 5 games.
The NFC South has been one of the weakest divisions in the NFL in recent years. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the NFC South for three consecutive seasons.
The Saints got off to a hot start before cooling down in recent weeks. The Panthers seemed hapless before Bryce Young was benched, but have found a little bit of an offensive spark with Andy Dalton under center.
However, the Atlanta Falcons are the current favorites in NFC South odds heading into their divisional clash with the Bucs on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 5.
Here is a dive into the latest NFC South odds.
NFC South odds
Atlanta enters Week 5 as the favorites in NFC South odds, according to the BetMGM NFL odds.
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The Falcons opened the 2024 season as the favorites to win the division. They were priced at (-140) before the season kicked off. These odds implied a 58.3 percent chance they would win the NFC South.
Heading into their Week 5 “Thursday Night Football” clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta remains the favorite to win the NFC South with (+160) odds. This implies a 38.5 percent chance at a division crown.
Expectations are high in Atlanta, with Kirk Cousins now leading the way at quarterback. The veteran signal-caller signed a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed with the Falcons in the offseason. Cousins played poorly in the Falcons Week 1, 18-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but has shown signs of improvement each week. If Cousins continues to progress, the Falcons will be contenders in the NFC.
Atlanta spent big in the offseason to bolster its defense around S Jessie Bates III. They added All-Pro talents LB Matthew Judon and S Justin Simmons. The offense is loaded with talent at the skill positions with RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts.
According to PFF, the Falcons are the eighth-highest-graded team throughout the season’s first month. Atlanta is (-130) to make the playoffs. The Falcons odds to win Super Bowl LIX are (+3000).
The Buccaneers’ NFC South odds have increased each week. Tampa Bay enters the Week 5 showdown trailing Atlanta with (+185) odds, which implies a 35.1 percent chance they will win the division. The Bucs entered the season priced at (+300). The winner of Thursday night’s meeting will likely be the odds-on-favorite to win the NFC South.
The Buccaneers also re-signed Baker Mayfield this offseason, who is off to a terrific start in his second season with the Buccaneers. Mayfield sits fourth in passer rating (106.9) and 13th in QBR (57.1) entering Thursday night, while Tampa Bay ranks eighth in EPA per play. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been dynamic every week at wide receiver, as usual.
Tampa Bay has won the NFC South for three consecutive seasons. According to PFF, the Buccaneers are the tenth-highest-graded team throughout the season’s first month. Tampa Bay is (-115) to make the playoffs. The Buccaneers odds to win Super Bowl LIX are (+4000).
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Since the end of the Drew Brees era, the New Orleans Saints have missed the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. The Saints went 9-8 last season and failed to capture the NFC South title despite entering the season as NFL betting favorites.
Last season was extremely disappointing in the first season with Derek Carr under center. Despite finishing with the NFC’s third-best point differential (+75), they failed to make the playoffs.
However, Carr’s second season in New Orleans is off to a terrific start. The Saints are currently 2-2, and according to PFF, the Saints are the second-highest-graded team throughout the season’s first month, behind only the San Fransisco 49ers. Veteran running back Alvin Kamara has sparked the offense early on. He is tied for the league lead in total touchdowns (6) and leads the league in yards from scrimmage (536).
New Orleans is (-105) to make the playoffs. These odds imply a 51.2 percent chance they reach the playoffs, not far behind the Buccaneers (-115) or the Falcons (-130). The Saints are even with the Buccaneers odds to win Super Bowl LIX at (+4000).
The Carolina Panthers are coming off an awful 2023 season, during which they finished a league-worst 2-15. The Panthers are one year removed from drafting their new franchise quarterback, Bryce Young.
This trade was a turning point in the Panthers’ history, shaping their future significantly. It involved the Panthers sending a substantial number of assets to Chicago and securing the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, which they used to select Young, while the Bears continued to build their future.
Bryce Young’s second season has been a disaster. He was benched after two weeks, and Andy Dalton took over. A new coaching regime was brought in, led by first-time head coach Dave Canales. Canales comes over from the Buccaneers, where he was the offensive coordinator and the man behind Mayfield’s career revival last season.
The Panthers have quickly fallen out of contention. Carolina is tied with the Patriots and Giants with the longest Super Bowl odds (+50000) of any team. They are (+3000) to win the NFC South or a 3.2 percent chance.
NFC South standings
The Buccaneers enter the Week 5 “TNF” showdown in sole possession of first place in the NFC South. However, with a win tonight, Atlanta will move into a tie.
- Buccaneers (3-1)
- Falcons (2-2)
- Saints (2-2)
- Panthers (1-3)
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