Admin September 30, 2024
NFL Overreactions Week 4
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down some of the biggest games from NFL week 4.
Sports Seriously
It’s Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season, which means we’ve reached October on the schedule. This is when the contenders begin to separate from the pretenders, when early season successes must prove they’re sustainable for the long haul of fall and winter.
The tension is palpable because there are just two winless records through four games this year. A lot of teams believe they still have a chance to make the playoffs, and this week’s slate offers plenty of opportunities to either confirm that faith or show it’s foolhardy.
There’s an AFC South battle between the first-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons, as well as an AFC North showdown pitting the Baltimore Ravens against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Buffalo Bills also visit the Houston Texans in a matchup of AFC contenders. There’s also our first London game when the New York Jets play the Minnesota Vikings, perhaps the most surprising undefeated team.
The week wraps up with a Sunday night game between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers and a Monday night game featuring the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints. Thankfully, there are already some picks and predictions to help preview all of the action.
Here is an early look at picks and predictions for the games that make up the NFL Week 5 schedule:
WHAT WE LEARNED IN NFL WEEK 4: One NFC team separating from the pack?
NFL Week 5 game predictions, picks
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Monday afternoon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Thursday, October 3
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- TV: None
- Streaming: Amazon Prime Video
- Spread: Falcons (-2)
Pro Football Network: Lean Bucs
“Is there a more confusing team in the NFL right now than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? … Tampa Bay currently sits 12th in terms of net EPA per game, seventh on offense, and 22nd on defense. The Bucs’ injury situation remains a concern, however. The Atlanta Falcons are a puzzle that isn’t any easier to figure out. They enter Week 5 at 2-2, with all of their games decided by eight points or less. They’re 20th in net EPA per game, 17th on offense, and 23rd on defense. The Falcons aren’t as injury-hit as the Buccaneers, though, which might be the key ultimately. Lean towards Tampa Bay getting the points here, even on the road. The Bucs have played three good games and collapsed in a heap once.”
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
- TV: NFL Network
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)
Pro Football Network: Vikings 20, Jets 17
“The thought of picking a Sam Darnold-led team over an Aaron Rodgers team is a little head-scrambling. This could be a low-scoring game between two very good defensive units, thus, one to avoid the spread and take the under on the total instead.”
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Soldier Field, Chicago
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Bears (-4)
Arizona Republic: Panthers 20, Bears 17: “Andy Dalton has given the Panthers new life. The savvy veteran will lead Carolina to an upset on the road.”
Pro Football Network: Bears 20, Panthers 17
“After four weeks, the Chicago Bears’ offense might finally be starting to work things out. They focused on getting their dynamic running back the ball in space to negate the impact of their offensive line, and he delivered. Chicago still ranks 27th in offensive EPA (expected points added) per game, but its defense ranking fifth is buying time to figure it all out. Caleb Williams is playing well when getting the ball out quickly, but the deep passing game remains a concern. … I do not love laying more than three points with this offense, and ultimately, the under might be the better play than the Bears here.”
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)
Arizona Republic: Ravens 30, Bengals 20
“The Bengals are at home, but the Ravens are rolling with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.”
Pro Football Network: Ravens 30, Bengals 27
“Baltimore’s defense remains a question, but the performance against Buffalo was a significant improvement. The Cincinnati Bengals are not a particularly good team, and their defense is a big part of the problem. They rank 29th in defensive EPA, which includes a bottom-10 ranking in both passing and rushing EPA. Cincinnati’s rush defense is particularly a concern against Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. The offense could make this interesting, ranking fourth in EPA per game, but if they can’t contain Henry, it will be tough to win. Both the Ravens -2.5 and the over are in play here.”
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium, Houston
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Texans (-1)
Sports Illustrated: Back the Bills
“The glaring weakness for the Texans this week is their run defense. They have allowed 4.7 yards per carry through the first four weeks. Unfortunately for them, the Bills’ offense is built to run the football and when they have success on the ground, they’re in a great spot to win. The Ravens were able to stop the run and put the Bills in a negative game split, which led to a loss for Buffalo.”
Arizona Republic: Bills 27, Texans 24
“We did not see the Bills losing that badly to the Ravens. We also don’t see them losing to the Texans.”
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 1 p.m.
- Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)
Doc’s Sports: Colts (+2.5)
“The Colts may not be a Super Bowl contender, but they can keep it close, if not win outright against the lowly Jaguars. Anthony Richardson went down with an injury in Week 4, but Joe Flacco stepped up and scored 27 points against a tough Steelers defense. Flacco doesn’t have the same upside as Richardson, but his floor is also a lot higher. Flacco will do a solid job at managing the game and will take advantage of any over-aggressive Jaguars looking to cut off routes. Jacksonville will be playing with desperation, but that doesn’t always translate to positive results.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Dolphins (-1)
Arizona Republic: Dolphins 20, Patriots 13
“Both teams have been struggling. We just have a little more faith in Miami being able to put at least some points up on the board.”
Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 1p.m. ET
- Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Md.
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Commanders (-3)
Doc’s Sports: Go big with the Commanders
“These two teams are heading in complete opposite directions, and this spread isn’t wide enough to reflect that fact. … The Washington defense still needs work, but they were able to slow down Kyler Murray and the Cardinals on the road. Northwest Stadium will be bouncing on Sunday afternoon, and another double-digit victory for Washington appears to be on the cards.”
Covers.com: Take the Commanders ASAP
“Those contrarian bettors waiting for the Washington Commanders to fall back to earth may want to sit down. It could be a while. The Commanders have scored a collective 80 points in the past two outings, which is more than the 66 total points the Cleveland Browns have mustered through the first four games. … Some of those Washington -3 lines have already jumped to -3.5 and will likely keep climbing, considering how good rookie QB Jayden Daniels looks.”
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 4:05 p.m.
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Broncos (-2.5)
BettingPros: Ride the Broncos
“While the Raiders are a bit all over the place, Denver’s success is sustainable. Nix is old enough to understand the value of not turning the ball over. He’s not trying to force any play, which gives the Broncos a chance in every game. Let’s back the Broncos at home.”
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
BettingPros: Pick the 49ers
“The 49ers offense should be able to have their way with the Cardinals’ defense. San Francisco is averaging 413.25 yards of offense through four games (which ranks second) while allowing 295.25 yards of offense. Arizona, meanwhile, is giving up 354.75 yards of offense. San Francisco should cruise to a win at home.”
Covers.com: Take the under
“After scoring almost 70 points in the opening two games, the Cardinals have combined for 27 points in losses to Detroit and Washington. The offense is a collective 5-for-20 on third downs in that span. San Francisco is by far the strongest defense Arizona has faced in 2024, with the 49ers sitting 10th in EPA allowed per play. And should the Niners pull away, you can expect them to pull starters and take it slow in the second half due to a Thursday Night Football spot in Seattle in Week 6. Totals of 50 points or higher are rare these days. Only three games have closed with a number of 50 or higher this season and all have gone under that total.”
Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)
Arizona Republic: Rams 24, Packers 20
“Which Rams team will show up? We have a feeling it will be the one that beat the 49ers earlier this season.”
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Lumen Field, Seattle
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Seahawks (-6)
Action Network: Bet the Seahawks
“The books seem like they haven’t caught up to how good Seattle is. If the Seahawks go to Detroit on Monday Night Football and play close or win, as I think they might, the spread at least goes to -7. The Giants defense is solid, but my only worry is that the defensive line has a tough matchup in front of it against Seattle’s offensive line. Dallas was able to mitigate that last Thursday and showed that New York can be schemed against. … New York’s offensive line is horrendous and given that it has to play in a stadium that has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, Daniel Jones could be in for a long day.”
BettingPros: Take the Seahawks
“Seattle is a tough place to play, not to mention Giants’ star receiver Malik Nabers is dealing with an injury, and his status for the game will be up in the air.”
Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Sunday, October 6
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock, NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Steelers (-2)
Doc’s Sports: Go with the Cowboys
“The Steelers defense was unlocked by Joe Flacco and the Colts in Week 4, and it’s hard to see them shutting down the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. The Steelers have used a dominant defense to hide their lackluster offense for years, but this is a nightmare matchup for them. Dak Prescott has been effective with the ball, and the Cowboys will have extra rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 4. … Pittsburgh’s defense will make some game changing plays, but they still don’t deserve to be favorites against a team like Dallas.”
New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Monday, September 7
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
- TV: ESPN, ESPN2
- Streaming: NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)
Action Network: Take the under due to injuries
“Both of these squads have extraordinary defenses. New Orleans enters this week with a top-five DVOA and didn’t allow a touchdown to Atlanta in Week 4. Kansas City has been great against the run this season and totally shut down the Chargers on Sunday. And don’t forget, dating back to Derek Carr’s time with the Raiders, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo knows all about the Saints QB’s tendencies.”
Arizona Republic: Chiefs 23, Saints 20
“The Chiefs just find ways to win. They’ll find a way to defeat the Saints at Arrowhead Stadium in the last game on the NFL Week 5 schedule on Monday Night Football.”