NFL game picks: Why these 3 teams could beat the spread in Week 3

Admin September 16, 2024

Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season served as a reminder that there are always surprising results in a sport with as much parity as pro football. Seven underdogs won outright and two more beat the spread this past week. It means there are unexpected 2-0 teams like the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings and equally unexpected 0-2 teams that consider themselves contenders like the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.

The third week of the season could provide more clarity, or another round of upsets, or likely some of both. Of the 16 games on the Week 3 schedule, nine feature a team favored by at least 4.5 points and seven games have a spread of a field goal or less as of Monday.

Using NFL odds from BetMGM, here are three teams that could be good picks against the spread:

NFL Week 3 picks against the spread

All odds as of Monday morning. Looking to wager? Check out the best mobile sports betting apps offering NFL betting promos in 2024 including the ESPN BET app and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Texans (-2.5) at Vikings

There’s a fascinating dynamic at play in this cross-conference battle of 2-0 teams. The Texans were the surprise of last season behind quarterback C.J. Stroud, came into 2024 as an AFC contender after a splashy trade for wide receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason and already have a two-game lead on the rest of the AFC South. But Houston’s 19-13 win over Chicago Sunday wasn’t exactly dominant, with the Texans managing just three points after halftime as Stroud faced consistent pressure. They also lost starting running back Joe Mixon to an ankle injury.

The Vikings, meanwhile, might be the biggest surprise of this season outside of perhaps New Orleans after beating the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers, 23-17, in Week 2. The resurgent Sam Darnold was sharp at quarterback, finding Justin Jefferson for a 98-yard touchdown pass to ignite the team, and the defense led by coordinator Brian Flores looked fierce. If the Vikings pulled that off at home in Week 2, what’s stopping them from doing it again in Week 3? There’s a good chance this is a close game, if not another Minnesota upset.

NFL WEEK 2 OVERREACTIONS: Are the Saints a top contender? Ravens, Dolphins in trouble

Chargers at Steelers (-2.5)

Both of these teams are off to 2-0 starts playing a bruising style of football, with Pittsburgh leading the NFL in rushing attempts through two games and the Chargers ranking among the top five. Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh have only coached against one another once before – in 2011, during Harbaugh’s first season with the San Francisco 49ers. Harbaugh won that game. Whoever wins round 2 will be a pleasant surprise at 3-0.

Los Angeles has to worry about the health and mobility of quarterback Justin Herbert after he suffered a leg injury at the end of the Chargers’ convincing 26-3 win at Carolina in Week 2. That’s not ideal against T.J. Watt and the ferocious Steelers’ defense. Harbaugh’s team will also be playing its second road game in a row across the country in the eastern time zone. But Pittsburgh has just one touchdown through two games with Justin Fields starting at quarterback, and its two wins are against the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos.

This is a step up in competition, especially now that Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins is producing like the playmaker he was supposed to be the Baltimore Ravens prior to injury. If Herbert plays against the Steelers, Los Angeles has the better team.

Lions (-3) at Cardinals

Nobody was better than Kyler Murray in Week 2. The Arizona Cardinals quarterback finished with a perfect passer rating in his team’s 41-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams, which came on the heels of an encouraging 34-28 loss at Buffalo in Week 1. Murray again looks like one of the best dual-threats in the league leading a potent offense that also featured rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.’s first outburst in the NFL on Sunday.

Detroit needed overtime to beat the same Rams’ team Arizona just throttled, and then managed just 16 points in its loss to the Tampa Bay Buccanneers in Week 2. Though Jared Goff has thrown for the fourth-most yards in the league through two games, the Lions struggled to capitalize in the red zone. Maybe they’re due to revert to the norm on offense, but star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown came up hobbling late against the Bucs. The Cardinals might just be a surprise contender in the wide-open NFC with a healthy Murray.