For a while it looked like Team USA wasn’t going to make the gold medal game, but the Americans rallied from 17 points down, including a 13-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to advance past Serbia. Now, the U.S. plays host France in the final as a significant favorite.

The Americans are favored by 16.5 points on BetMGM. The U.S. is -2000 on the moneyline, implying the team wins gold about 95 percent of the time.

This is the third-smallest point spread for the U.S. men this Olympics. The U.S. closed as a 13.5-point favorite against Serbia in group play and was a 15.5-point favorite for the semifinal.

This is a rematch of the gold medal game from three years ago in Tokyo. That year, France beat the Americans in the first group game, but the U.S. won the final 87-82 behind 29 points from Kevin Durant.

This year’s gold medal game between the U.S. and France will take place at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Paris.

USA vs. France gold medal game odds

The U.S. hasn’t lost this summer, including in exhibition play, but has been tested with a few close finishes. The 95-91 semifinal against Serbia felt like a final, even if it wasn’t.

The atmosphere on Saturday will crank things up a notch with a French crowd hoping to urge its team on to an upset. Bercy Arena has been rocking for France’s games this tournament, especially in knockout wins against Canada and Germany.

France struggled in group play, needing overtime to beat Japan and getting handily beaten by Germany. Since then, home-court advantage has proven to be a difference-maker. Canada went 3-0 in Group A, Germany went 3-0 in Group B and the Americans went 3-0 in Group C. France will have to beat all three consecutively to take the country’s first gold medal in basketball.

Home-court aside, does France have the same firepower as Serbia to challenge the U.S.? Nikola Jokić affects the entire opposing defense. France’s Victor Wembanyama can affect an entire opposing offense. Serbia got strong shooting nights from guards Bogdan Bogdanović and Aleksa Avramović. Who on France can do that?

Former NBA guard Frank Ntilikina has scored five points in each of the last two games. Evan Fournier had 15 against Canada, but just five against Germany.

France’s bigs are tough with Wembanyama, Nicolas Batum and Rudy Gobert, but Gobert has only played a combined eight minutes in the last two games while France went with a smaller lineup (and Gobert is dealing with an injury).

From any basketball sense, it’s easy to understand that the U.S. is the better team on paper and the betting odds reflect that. Stephen Curry finally got going at the Olympics with 36 points in the semifinal, Durant has had his incredible moments, LeBron James has been a consistent all-around force and Joel Embiid even had a nice stretch in the comeback run against Serbia.

We should just be wondering how much smack Durant will talk on social media after the win, but it’s just one game and it’s going to be on the road in front of a raucous crowd. Saturday should be fun.

(Photo of Stephen Curry: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)