Basketball festivities at the 2024 Paris Olympics are up and running. The men’s and women’s competitions each feature a two-game slate for Wednesday.

Olympic Basketball Best Bets

Men’s USA vs. Men’s South Sudan

South Sudan +29.5 (-110)

USA and South Sudan will meet up on Wednesday at 3 pm ET.

The United States won their first game against Nikola Jokic and Serbia by a score of 110-84. Led by LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and a laundry list of other NBA All-Stars and future Hall-of-Famers, the USA entered the Olympics as resounding -400 favorites to take home Gold.

There’s no denying this team’s overpowering talent in comparison to the other Olympic squads. However, I’m willing to back South Sudan when handed 29.5 points.

South Sudan won their first match against Puerto Rico by a score of 90-79. More famously, they nearly upset the USA earlier this month in a pre-Olympic exhibition game. Despite being favored by more than 40 points in that one, the States won by a score of only 101-100, avoiding the upset thanks to some clutch play by LeBron.

I’m not harboring too much analysis in the results of that exhibition game, but the Sudanese have momentum on their side after encouraging pre-Olympic play and a solid win over Puerto Rico. Size is on their side, too, as half of South Sudan’s roster stands at least 6’9″ or taller. They outrebounded Puerto Rico by 18 boards and grabbed a whopping 18 offensive rebounds in that game.

The FIBA goaltending rules — which allow a player to touch the ball while it’s on the rim — favor taller teams in this tournament. Team USA has plenty of talented bigs on their side in Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo. In turn, I’m not expecting a showcase from South Sudan’s bigs on Wednesday.

But in a 40-minute contest where size could make for a slower pace and help the Sudanese keep up to some degree, I’ll side with them to keep the game within 30 points.

LeBron James Over 27.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-125)

James is the clear leader of Team USA, making him a logical target in the player props market.

In USA’s first game opposite Serbia, James totaled 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists — good for 37 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). He played a team-leading 27 minutes.

I can’t read USA coach Steve Kerr’s mind, but LeBron’s usage thus far indicates that James may be the main non-negotiable in USA’s lineup. He holds a high ceiling when it comes to points, rebounds, and assists, so I’m keen on targeting a PRA prop for him.

In that aforementioned USA-South Sudan exhibition game, LeBron recorded 35 PRA in 23 minutes.

This contest features a high 191.0-point over/under with -112 odds on the over. The market is expecting a high-scoring game, so I’ll back LeBron to rack up more than 27.5 PRA in what should be a favorable environment.

Men’s Serbia vs. Men’s Puerto Rico

Nikola Jokic Over 37.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-106)

Nikola Jokic and Serbia had a tough draw in their first game by facing the USA.

Despite the USA dedicating a large portion of their defensive efforts to limiting Jokic’s touches, he still managed to notch 33 PRA.

He went 8 for 15 from the field (53.3% FG%), which is below-average by Jokic standards.

Jokic will now draw an easier matchup against Puerto Rico at 11:15 am ET on Wednesday. Serbia comes in as a 16.5-point favorite.

Jokic is a natural scorer and playmaker, so I like his chances to rack up points and assists (PA) against the team that gave up 90 points to South Sudan. He managed 28 PA against the USA. However, he nabbed only five rebounds in that contest. I expect him to have a much bigger impact on the boards against Puerto Rico.

As mentioned, Puerto Rico was outrebounded by 18 boards against South Sudan. Puerto Rico has only one player on their team who stands above 6’8″ and is one of the smallest teams participating in the Olympics. With that, I’ll back Jokic to exceed 37.5 PRA on Wednesday.

Women’s Puerto Rico vs. Women’s Spain

Megan Gustafson Over 17.5 Points (-113)

Let’s turn to the women’s basketball competition. Puerto Rico and Spain will meet up at 5:00 am ET.

Spain pulled off a nail-bitter overtime victory against China on Sunday. Megan Gustafson of the WNBA’s Las Vegas Aces contributed 29 points in 40 minutes of play for Spain. If we include only regulation, she scored 23 points in 35 minutes.

The 6’4″ center took 17 shot attempts in regulation. As the only WNBA member of Spain, she figures to take on a large portion of scoring duties. Her high shot volume is encouraging given that she shoots a majority of attempts from high-percentage areas of the floor, but she can also get some scores from downtown.

Puerto Rico has a fairly small team, so Gustafson could be dominant in the paint. Plus, despite Gustafson totaling 29 points against China, only one of those points came at the free-throw line. I’m expecting Gustafson to take on a similar workload that allowed for 23 points in regulation her last time out, and perhaps she will be afforded more than two attempts at the charity stripe this go-around.

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