Admin July 30, 2024
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Although the United States has dominated men’s basketball at the Olympics in recent years, with America winning each of the last four gold medals, 2024 feels different.
Perhaps it was the lackluster exhibition showcase that made fans feel uneasy. Team USA barely snuck out a win over South Sudan 101-100. In fact, while LeBron James and company finished a perfect 4-0 ahead of the Olympics, three of their four wins came by just single digits against vastly less talented teams.
Fans started biting their nails, wondering if the ol’ U.S. of A still had what it takes to compete with the other best countries in the world. Could this be the year that the United States streak comes to an end? Well, according to oddsmakers, there’s nothing to worry about.
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Despite their recent struggles, the United States is still a heavy favorite in most people’s eyes. Their win over Serbia in their first contest of the Olympics has also calmed a lot of skeptics down. That said, Serbia was the one team that the United States had major success against during their showcase. Perhaps similar struggles will befall them when they face South Sudan again on July 31.
But if the United States doesn’t win gold, who will? Here’s every men’s basketball team in the Olympics ranked based on their gold medal odds. All odds via DraftKings as of July 28.
Team USA men’s basketball: Kevin Durant, LeBron James propel USA in Olympic opening win over Serbia
Power ranking Olympic men’s basketball teams
12) Japan: +60000
Widely considered the weakest team in this year’s Olympics, Japan was actually on a bit of a roll heading into the Paris Games. The team qualified for their second consecutive Olympics for the first time since 1976, and were solid competitors at the 2023 FIBA tournament. A
Although Japan suffered a devastating defeat at the hands of France earlier Tuesday, Japan kept it very close, pushing the game to overtime before losing by just four points. Japan is now 0-2 for the tournament, having lost their opening game against Germany as well, and practically eliminating them from gold medal contention. They could still compete for a spot in the quarterfinals, but their odds are very slim. Still, for a team that many considered a heavy underdog heading into the Olympics, this team did surprisingly well despite being placed in a brutal group.
11) Puerto Rico: +50000
Puerto Rico drew the short stick, being placed in the United States’ group to open Olympic play. The team has already lost to South Sudan as well, and now get Nikola Jokic and Serbia before facing off against the United States.
If Puerto Rico wants any chance of medaling this year, they’ll need to win over Serbia. However, considering Jokic’s ability to take over games, that will be a tough ask for Puerto Rico, which will lean on Jose Alvarado and Tremont Waters for most of their scoring.
10) Brazil: +40000
Two defeats to start the tournament have put Brazil on their heels. They haven’t looked particularly strong either, with their starters only putting up a measly 30 points in their game against France. One of Brazil’s top stars, Bruno Caboclo, has yet to get going as well. He’s tallied just six points through the team’s first two contests.
9) Spain: +15000
After a huge win over Greece, Spain has breathed some life into itself. However, the Spaniards still don’t have the talent to compete with teams like the United States or France should they reach the quarterfinals. While Spain has good size to handle teams that rely on strong play from forwards and centers, just as they handled Greece, who leaned on Giannis Antetokounmpo, they have struggled to get consistent play from their backfield. That will hold them back for the remainder of the tournament.
8) South Sudan: +10000
Despite their impressive performance against the United States in the pre-Olympics showcase, South Sudan does not have the NBA-level talent that is expected of a gold medal contender. Regardless of their lack of a true superstar, South Sudan has not slowed down with the bright lights on. They handled Puerto Rico in their opening contest and now will get an opportunity to prove their near-win over the United States wasn’t a fluke tomorrow.
7) Greece: +4000
Now 0-2, Greece has the best gold medal odds of all winless teams left. Most of that hope lies with Giannis Antetokounmpo though. As we saw against Spain, any team that can limit him pretty much destroys Greece’s chances of winning.
The Greeks have struggled to find consistency shooting the ball. In their first game, they shot just 28.1% from three. In their game against Spain, they shot much better (34.3%), but allowed Spain to shoot a devastating 48.4% from downtown. Antetokounmpo can only do so much. If Greece wants any chance of gold, they’ll need their other stars like Calathes, Mitoglou, and Larentzakis to find their strokes.
T-5) Australia: +2000
After becoming the first team outside the Americas and Europe to earn an Olympic medal in 2021, Australia disappointed at the 2023 FIBA championship, finishing 10th place. While that was enough to earn a bid for the Olympics, it was also a far cry from where the Australians wanted to finish.
Australia did well to win their first game of the Olympics, but their loss against Canada showed what most people feared about this team. They just don’t have the star power to compete with the strongest nations in the world. Patty Mills, Matisse Thybulle, and Josh Giddey aren’t the guys you want to lean on when the Americans are benching Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton.
T-5) Serbia: +2000
Nikola Jokic is arguably the best basketball player in the world currently. A three-time NBA MVP, Jokic alone can keep Serbia in most games. However, when he is off the court, Serbia can’t keep pace. Against the United States, Serbia was outscored by 26 points in the ten minutes Jokic was off the court. The Serbians lost that game by…26.
4) Germany: +1800
Germany may not have the All-NBA talent that Serbia, Greece, France, or Canada has, but they are deep. In their opening game against Japan, five players tallied double-digit points. It’s clear that Franz Wagner is the team’s No. 1 option, Dennis Schroder is the team’s facilitator, and everyone else is there to rotate and help Germany maintain their strong offense. After winning the World Cup in 2023, Germany looks to be in a great position to medal in these games.
3) France: +1200
Now we’re getting to the big dogs. France earned a silver medal at the 2021 Olympics, and only lost to the United States by five points in the gold medal match. However, after a disastrous performance at the 2023 World Cup, some people started to worry about this team’s viability in Paris.
Luckily, the emergence of Victor Wembanyama has prevented France from suffering any massive losses early on. The French were definitely expected to take down both Japan and Brazil. Those wins alone will push France to the quarterfinals. However, their next match against Germany will show whether or not the hosts have what it takes to compete for the top of the podium.
2) Canada: +950
Backed by tons of NBA talent, including 2024 NBA MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2024 is Team Canada’s best chance to win gold ever. It would be quite the jump for Canada, who has never even medaled in the Olympics. However, the team finally has the talent to do so. With NBA stars like Jamal Murray coming off the bench for this team, Canada flexes one of the deepest rosters of the tournament. Just one great day against Team USA could give the Canadians the gold.
1) United States: -550
Was there ever any doubt? Despite their struggles in the showcase, this is the United States. They have a flurry of NBA MVPs, championships, All-Star appearance, and All-Defense honors on their roster and that’s not even taking their starters into account. Any one of their players, be it Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, or Jayson Tatum, can take over a game single-handedly.
Sure, there’s cause for concern given their inability to put away teams with far less talent, but the United States still won those games. Now that the games have meaning behind them, the United States should kick themselves into gear and start dominating day in and day out.
How to watch USA vs. South Sudan:
Date: Wednesday, July 31
Time: 3 p.m. ET/12 p.m. PT
TV: USA Network
Stream: Peacock, NBCOlympics.com
Stream the Olympics: Catch Team USA in action with a Peacock subscription
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