On April 17, 2024, exactly 100 days ahead of the Paris Olympics opening ceremony, Nielsen’s Gracenote released its latest Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast for the 2024 Games. Considering available results data from key global and continental competitions since the 2021 Summer Games, Gracenote has projected gold, silver and bronze medal counts for participating countries and athletes at the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad. This forecast is updated monthly between now and the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympic Games.

Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international
competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately. However, it appears that there will be limited participation of these athletes and we expect the Virtual Medal Table to be the usual accurate reflection of the NOCs based on the data that we have.

Snapshot

Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States to win the most medals overall at Paris 2024 (123). If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.

China is projected to finish second on total medals but should challenge the United States for first place on gold medals. The 89 medals currently forecast for China would equal the country’s total in Tokyo two years ago. The 35 gold medals forecast would be slightly down on China’s total of 38 three years ago.

Great Britain is also expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting two more British medals than Tokyo’s 64. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 13 golds in Paris. 

Host nation France should sharply increase its overall medal haul in comparison to the 33 total medals won in Tokyo. The Virtual Medal Table puts France in third place on gold medals, behind the United States and China, and its forecast total of 28 gold medals would be not far short of France’s total number of medals at the last Olympics.

Australia is now expected to be fifth on the total medal table. The 50 medals forecasted by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table would be the country’s most for 20 years, since winning exactly that number at Athens 2004.

Russian and Belarussian athletes

With competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from international competition in almost all Olympic sports since February 2022, it is not possible to assess potential performance accurately for those participating as Individual Neutral Athletes at Paris 2024 unless they have been competing more or less normally like, for example, the tennis players from the two countries. However, it appears that the number of competitors from these countries will be severely limited in Paris and the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is therefore representing the current situation accurately given the data which we have.

The top-five medal winning countries

(Paris 2024 projection: 123 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)

The U.S. is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Paris. The current Gracenote projection of 123 medals is 10 more than the total claimed by Team USA in 2021. If this total is achieved, it will be the best U.S. medal performance since the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics which suffered from boycotts. The United States team has medals projected in 27 different sports in the Virtual Medal Table, two sports fewer than the country’s own Olympic record of 29 which was set in Tokyo. Athletics and swimming are still the key to success though with just under half of US medals projected to be won in those two sports.

(Paris 2024: 89, Tokyo 2020: 89)

At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Current Gracenote projections from the results which Chinese athletes are recording suggests that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are China’s key medal-winning sports but 21 sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 35 means that it could be a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.

(Paris 2024: 66, Tokyo 2020: 64)

The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for Paris 2024 suggests that Great Britain can sustain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth successive Olympic Summer Games. British success over the past three Olympic Games has been built on having medal winners in at least 20 sports and the current VMT forecast suggests that this is set to continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympic Games, Great Britain won medals in at least 20 sports only in London in 1908, which was a very different Olympic era. 

(Paris 2024: 55, Tokyo 2020: 33)

The current forecast projects that host nation France will increase its medal total significantly and nearly triple its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics. Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century but medals are now projected in 25 different sports, a new French record. At the Paris 2024 Games, France should be expected to have its best Olympic Games since 1900.

(Paris 2024: 50 medals, Tokyo 2020: 46)

After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will again improve on its 2021 performance with over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics. If Australia wins 50 medals as currently forecast, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since Athens 2004. Achieving this will rely on the success of the swimming team.

Countries Ranked 6 to 10 on the Virtual Medal Table

(Paris 2024: 49, Tokyo 2020: 58)

After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to fall short of that performance in Paris. Gracenote’s latest Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning nine fewer medals than three years ago. The number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be halved, from 27 to 13. Medals are forecast in 17 different sports, well short of Japan’s record of 21 from Tokyo 2020. 

(Paris 2024 projection: 47, Tokyo 2020: 40)

Italy had its best ever Olympics in Tokyo but Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table projects an even better performance at Paris 2024. Buoyed by a potential best ever performance in the pool, Italy is forecast to win a record 47 medals across 21 different sports, six more than in Tokyo. Italy may also get close to challenging its 40-year-old best gold medal total of 14, set at the Los Angeles Olympics in 1984. The VMT projects Italy to win the eighth most gold medals, behind the United States, China, France, Netherlands, Great Britain, Australia and Japan.

(Paris 2024: 38, Tokyo 2020: 36)

Two years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris next year and perhaps set another record. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports and the 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story. However, success this year will primarily depend on three sports; rowing, cycling – track and athletics.

(Paris 2024: 36, Tokyo 2020: 37)

Germany’s medal total has declined at six of the seven Summer Olympics since reunification, with only London 2012 providing respite. Paris 2024 looks like it might continue that trend with Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table projecting 36 medals, one fewer than in Tokyo. The German team is forecast to win medals in just 18 sports, the joint second lowest since reunification, after London 2012 and Tokyo 2020. Germany no longer dominates any particular sport and no more than four medals for the German team are forecast by the VMT in a single sport.  

(Paris 2024: 24, Tokyo 2020: 20)

Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 24 medals, including nine golds. This would be Korea’s best Olympic performance since 2012.

About Gracenote Virtual Medal Table

The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand predictions and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties. 

About Gracenote

Gracenote is the content solutions business unit of Nielsen providing entertainment metadata, content IDs and related offerings to the world’s leading creators, distributors and platforms. Gracenote technology enables advanced content navigation and discovery capabilities ensuring consumers can easily connect to the music, TV shows, movies and sports they love while delivering powerful content analytics making complex business decisions simpler.

About Nielsen

Nielsen shapes the world’s media and content as a global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Through our understanding of people and their behaviors across all channels and platforms, we empower our clients with independent and actionable intelligence so they can connect and engage with their audiences—now and into the future. Nielsen operates around the world in more than 55 countries. Learn more at www.nielsen.com and connect with us on social media (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram).