Stephan Jaeger was able to outlast everyone at the Houston Open to help us claim our first big outright win (+5000) of the year. 

He didn’t exactly go out and win it, but he made very few mistakes and caught some breaks on the back nine. 

I thought he was toast once Scottie Scheffler hit it to five feet on the 18th hole, but the golfer’s cold putter finally worked in my favor for once. 

Betting outrights on golf requires a lot of patience.

We aren’t going to hit winners every week or even every month, but we only need to hit a few to make the entire year profitable. 

Let’s try to carry some of last week’s momentum into the Valero Texas Open, which kicks off Thursday in San Antonio. 

Valero Texas Open course breakdown

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) is a par-72 that measures 7,438 yards and features narrow fairways that are lined with trees and thick rough. 

While distance is a big advantage on the par-5s, the course is more about total driving than pure power.

If you stray too far offline, you can get into some real trouble (Kevin Na once made a score of 16 on a single hole at this event). 

We’ve seen several shorter hitters have success here over the years.

This doesn’t mean the bombers can’t play well this week, but they will need to hit it straight. 

The greens are average in size (6,400 square feet) and are tiered. Golfers will need to be dialed in with their irons in order to give themselves good birdie looks. 

The greens feature bermudagrass with poa trivialis overseed (the same type of grass we’ve seen the last few weeks on PGA Tour stops). 

In 2023, the field hit just 61 percent of greens in regulation, which is well below the Tour average. This places an emphasis on around-the-green play.

We’ve seen plenty of good scramblers (Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker, etc.) play well at TPC San Antonio over the years. 

As is always the case in Texas, the wind will play a big factor this week. Light winds on Thursday are expected to turn to moderate by mid-morning Friday and stay throughout the weekend.

When it comes to the betting board this week, I’m looking for golfers who are very solid, tee to green and have a good track record in Texas. 

Let’s try to add to the bankroll before the Masters next week. 

Valero Texas Open outright picks

Billy Horschel (35/1, DraftKings)

Horschel is one of the streakiest golfers on the PGA Tour. His wins are usually telegraphed by solid incoming form. I’m hoping that’s the case again this week, as he’s finished T12 or better in three of his last four starts. 

After last week’s top-10 finish where he had the low round of the day on Easter Sunday, he mentioned something about the lie in his irons being off and that his swing feels a lot better now that it is fixed. 

The results certainly seem to back up what he said, as he’s coming off three of his best approach performances in the last 12 months. 

He’s one of the best in the field when it comes to hitting greens in regulation and he’s finished T11 or better in four of his last seven trips to TPC San Antonio. 

Byeong Hun An (40/1, Bet365)

If I could only make one bet this week, it would be on An. 

He has quietly posted five top-eight finishes in his last 13 starts on the PGA Tour. During that stretch, he’s been in contention four times. 

I would argue he should have won earlier this year at the Sony Open, but he had some bad putting luck in a playoff against Grayson Murray. 

An is elite off the tee and around the greens. He can have spike weeks with his irons and with his putter, which gives him a ton of upside. 

He also seems to like TPC San Antonio, where he’s finished in the top 10 in two of his last three appearances at this event. 

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Aaron Rai (65/1, Caesars)

Rai’s odds are too good to pass up this week. 

For whatever reason, he seems to love playing in Texas. He has an excellent track record at Memorial Park (T7 there last week) and he’s finished in the top 30 at this week’s event in both of his appearances. 

Perhaps he likes the Lone Star State because ball strikers tend to play well in the wind. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s an elite iron player and he’s underrated around the green. 

The putter is always a wild card for Rai, but I’m willing to give him a chance at +6600. 

Lucas Glover (90/1, FanDuel)

Glover is another poor putter who has made my outright betting card for the week because he has long been known as one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour. 

Recently, he has gained strokes putting in six of his last seven starts. The putter can be awful at times, but he proved in the fall that he’s capable of gaining strokes on the greens, winning back-to-back events. 

He has a solid track record at TPC San Antonio and in Texas as a whole. My model has him as the best value on the betting board this week.